Dragones de Oaxaca vs Real Refineros Statistics & Analysis

Dragones de Oaxaca

Oct 04, 2026 - 00:00

3 1.32

2 1.28

xG Accuracy: 52%

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Real Refineros

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Dragones de Oaxaca Dragones de Oaxaca ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 00:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11655667

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Dragones de Oaxaca win · Dragones de Oaxaca 3–2 Real Refineros

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Liga Premier Serie A
Fixture: Dragones de Oaxaca vs Real Refineros
Kickoff: 2026-10-04 00:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Dragones de Oaxaca 1.32 — Real Refineros 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Liga Premier Serie A — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	La Tribu de Cd. Juarez	6	4	0	2	13
1	Artesanos Metepec	6	6	0	0	19
2	Acatlan	6	4	1	1	13
2	Dragones de Oaxaca	6	4	1	1	15
3	Vaqueros Reynosa	6	4	1	1	13
3	Halcones Negros	6	3	1	2	11
4	Mineros de Fresnillo	6	3	2	1	11
4	CDM	6	3	1	2	10
5	Correcaminos UAT II	6	2	2	2	8
5	Delfines Coatzacoalcos	6	2	2	2	8
6	Guerreros	6	2	1	3	8
6	Guerreros del Pacifico	5	2	1	2	8
7	Atlético Saltillo	6	3	0	3	8
7	Calor de San Pedro	5	2	1	2	8
8	FC Santiago	6	2	1	3	7
8	Real Refineros	6	2	1	3	7
9	Real Apodaca	6	1	1	4	4
9	Ciervos	6	1	0	5	2
10	Héroes de Zaci	6	0	1	5	2
10	Cañoneros Marina	6	0	0	6	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Halcones Negros	6	17	4	+13	11
2	Artesanos Metepec	6	16	4	+12	19
3	CDM	6	16	8	+8	10
4	La Tribu de Cd. Juarez	6	15	8	+7	13
5	Dragones de Oaxaca	6	14	7	+7	15
6	Vaqueros Reynosa	6	11	8	+3	13
7	Acatlan	6	10	6	+4	13
8	Guerreros	6	10	12	-2	8
9	FC Santiago	6	9	7	+2	7
10	Real Refineros	6	9	10	-1	7
11	Atlético Saltillo	6	9	15	-6	8
12	Mineros de Fresnillo	6	8	2	+6	11
13	Delfines Coatzacoalcos	6	8	8	0	8
14	Correcaminos UAT II	6	7	7	0	8
15	Calor de San Pedro	5	7	12	-5	8
16	Real Apodaca	6	7	12	-5	4
17	Guerreros del Pacifico	5	4	4	0	8
18	Héroes de Zaci	6	3	12	-9	2
19	Ciervos	6	3	19	-16	2
20	Cañoneros Marina	6	1	19	-18	0