Real Apodaca vs Vaqueros Reynosa Statistics & Analysis

Real Apodaca

Oct 04, 2026 - 22:00

1 1.45

2 1.15

xG Accuracy: 70%

⚽

Vaqueros Reynosa

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Real Apodaca Vaqueros Reynosa ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11689028

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Vaqueros Reynosa win · Real Apodaca 1–2 Vaqueros Reynosa

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga Premier Serie A
Fixture: Real Apodaca vs Vaqueros Reynosa
Kickoff: 2026-10-04 23:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
xG (showing): Real Apodaca 1.45 — Vaqueros Reynosa 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Liga Premier Serie A — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Mineros de Fresnillo	7	4	2	1	14
1	Artesanos Metepec	7	6	1	0	20
2	La Tribu de Cd. Juarez	6	4	0	2	13
2	Dragones de Oaxaca	6	4	1	1	15
3	Vaqueros Reynosa	6	4	1	1	13
3	Halcones Negros	7	4	1	2	14
4	Acatlan	7	4	1	2	13
4	Calor de San Pedro	6	3	1	2	11
5	Correcaminos UAT II	6	2	2	2	8
5	CDM	6	3	1	2	10
6	Guerreros	6	2	1	3	8
6	Delfines Coatzacoalcos	7	2	3	2	9
7	Atlético Saltillo	6	3	0	3	8
7	Guerreros del Pacifico	5	2	1	2	8
8	FC Santiago	6	2	1	3	7
8	Real Refineros	7	2	1	4	7
9	Real Apodaca	6	1	1	4	4
9	Ciervos	6	1	0	5	2
10	Héroes de Zaci	6	0	1	5	2
10	Cañoneros Marina	7	0	0	7	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Halcones Negros	7	20	6	+14	14
2	Artesanos Metepec	7	17	5	+12	20
3	CDM	6	16	8	+8	10
4	La Tribu de Cd. Juarez	6	15	8	+7	13
5	Dragones de Oaxaca	6	14	7	+7	15
6	Calor de San Pedro	6	14	13	+1	11
7	Mineros de Fresnillo	7	12	4	+8	14
8	Acatlan	7	12	10	+2	13
9	Vaqueros Reynosa	6	11	8	+3	13
10	Real Refineros	7	11	13	-2	7
11	Guerreros	6	10	12	-2	8
12	FC Santiago	6	9	7	+2	7
13	Delfines Coatzacoalcos	7	9	9	0	9
14	Atlético Saltillo	6	9	15	-6	8
15	Correcaminos UAT II	6	7	7	0	8
16	Real Apodaca	6	7	12	-5	4
17	Guerreros del Pacifico	5	4	4	0	8
18	Héroes de Zaci	6	3	12	-9	2
19	Ciervos	6	3	19	-16	2
20	Cañoneros Marina	7	2	26	-24	0