Statistics / Football / Mexico. Liga Premier Serie A / Ciervos vs Halcones Negros

Ciervos vs Halcones Negros Statistics & Analysis

Ciervos Ciervos
Oct 03, 2026 - 21:30
0 1.18
5 1.42
xG Accuracy: 27%
⚽
Halcones Negros
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Halcones Negros Halcones Negros ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11262713

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Halcones Negros win · Ciervos 0–5 Halcones Negros
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga Premier Serie A
  • Fixture: Ciervos vs Halcones Negros
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 21:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.0%
  • xG (showing): Ciervos 1.18 — Halcones Negros 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Liga Premier Serie A Liga Premier Serie A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 La Tribu de Cd. Juarez 6 4 0 2 13
1 Artesanos Metepec 6 6 0 0 19
2 Acatlan 6 4 1 1 13
2 Dragones de Oaxaca 6 4 1 1 15
3 Vaqueros Reynosa 6 4 1 1 13
3 Halcones Negros 6 3 1 2 11
4 Mineros de Fresnillo 6 3 2 1 11
4 CDM 6 3 1 2 10
5 Correcaminos UAT II 6 2 2 2 8
5 Delfines Coatzacoalcos 6 2 2 2 8
6 Guerreros 6 2 1 3 8
6 Guerreros del Pacifico 5 2 1 2 8
7 Atlético Saltillo 6 3 0 3 8
7 Calor de San Pedro 5 2 1 2 8
8 FC Santiago 6 2 1 3 7
8 Real Refineros 6 2 1 3 7
9 Real Apodaca 6 1 1 4 4
9 Ciervos 6 1 0 5 2
10 Héroes de Zaci 6 0 1 5 2
10 Cañoneros Marina 6 0 0 6 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Halcones Negros 6 17 4 +13 11
2 Artesanos Metepec 6 16 4 +12 19
3 CDM 6 16 8 +8 10
4 La Tribu de Cd. Juarez 6 15 8 +7 13
5 Dragones de Oaxaca 6 14 7 +7 15
6 Vaqueros Reynosa 6 11 8 +3 13
7 Acatlan 6 10 6 +4 13
8 Guerreros 6 10 12 -2 8
9 FC Santiago 6 9 7 +2 7
10 Real Refineros 6 9 10 -1 7
11 Atlético Saltillo 6 9 15 -6 8
12 Mineros de Fresnillo 6 8 2 +6 11
13 Delfines Coatzacoalcos 6 8 8 0 8
14 Correcaminos UAT II 6 7 7 0 8
15 Calor de San Pedro 5 7 12 -5 8
16 Real Apodaca 6 7 12 -5 4
17 Guerreros del Pacifico 5 4 4 0 8
18 Héroes de Zaci 6 3 12 -9 2
19 Ciervos 6 3 19 -16 2
20 Cañoneros Marina 6 1 19 -18 0
Liga Premier Serie A Mexico. Liga Premier Serie A Predictions