Héroes de Zaci vs Acatlan Statistics & Analysis

Héroes de Zaci

Oct 01, 2026 - 18:00

0 1.39

1 1.21

xG Accuracy: 64%

Acatlan

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Héroes de Zaci Acatlan ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 00:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11216644

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Acatlan win · Héroes de Zaci 0–1 Acatlan

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Liga Premier Serie A
Fixture: Héroes de Zaci vs Acatlan
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 01:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
xG (showing): Héroes de Zaci 1.39 — Acatlan 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Liga Premier Serie A — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	La Tribu de Cd. Juarez	6	4	0	2	13
1	Artesanos Metepec	6	6	0	0	19
2	Acatlan	6	4	1	1	13
2	Dragones de Oaxaca	5	3	1	1	12
3	Mineros de Fresnillo	6	3	2	1	11
3	Halcones Negros	6	3	1	2	10
4	Vaqueros Reynosa	5	3	1	1	10
4	CDM	6	3	1	2	10
5	Correcaminos UAT II	6	2	2	2	8
5	Delfines Coatzacoalcos	6	2	2	2	8
6	Atlético Saltillo	6	3	0	3	8
6	Guerreros del Pacifico	5	2	1	2	8
7	FC Santiago	5	2	0	3	6
7	Calor de San Pedro	5	2	1	2	8
8	Guerreros	5	2	0	3	6
8	Real Refineros	5	2	1	2	7
9	Real Apodaca	5	1	1	3	4
9	Ciervos	6	1	0	5	2
10	Héroes de Zaci	6	0	1	5	2
10	Cañoneros Marina	6	0	0	6	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Halcones Negros	6	17	4	+13	10
2	Artesanos Metepec	6	16	4	+12	19
3	CDM	6	16	8	+8	10
4	La Tribu de Cd. Juarez	6	15	8	+7	13
5	Dragones de Oaxaca	5	11	5	+6	12
6	Acatlan	6	10	6	+4	13
7	Vaqueros Reynosa	5	9	7	+2	10
8	Atlético Saltillo	6	9	15	-6	8
9	Mineros de Fresnillo	6	8	2	+6	11
10	Delfines Coatzacoalcos	6	8	8	0	8
11	Guerreros	5	8	10	-2	6
12	FC Santiago	5	7	5	+2	6
13	Correcaminos UAT II	6	7	7	0	8
14	Real Refineros	5	7	7	0	7
15	Calor de San Pedro	5	7	12	-5	8
16	Real Apodaca	5	6	10	-4	4
17	Guerreros del Pacifico	5	4	4	0	8
18	Héroes de Zaci	6	3	12	-9	2
19	Ciervos	6	3	19	-16	2
20	Cañoneros Marina	6	1	19	-18	0