Statistics / Football / Mexico. Liga Premier Serie A / Halcones Negros vs Calor de San Pedro

Halcones Negros vs Calor de San Pedro Statistics & Analysis

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Halcones Negros
Sep 27, 2026 - 00:00
7 1.26
0 1.34
xG Accuracy: 14%
Calor de San Pedro Calor de San Pedro
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Calor de San Pedro Halcones Negros ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 7-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10078014

Closing Odds 1.5
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Halcones Negros win · Halcones Negros 7–0 Calor de San Pedro
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Calor de San Pedro (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Calor de San Pedro (1X2) by about 17.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Halcones Negros (1X2) 33.4 60.0 -26.6
Draw (1X2) 29.6 20.0 +9.6
Calor de San Pedro (1X2) 37.0 20.0 +17.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 60.9 -12.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 39.1 +12.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.0% on Calor de San Pedro (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.0%. The difference — about 17.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Halcones Negros (1X2) 1.5 1.5 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.5 4.5 0.0
Calor de San Pedro (1X2) 4.5 4.5 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.53 1.53 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.38 2.38 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga Premier Serie A
  • Fixture: Halcones Negros vs Calor de San Pedro
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 00:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Halcones Negros 1.26 — Calor de San Pedro 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 32.7% · Probability edge: +19.1 pts · Est. EV: +80.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Liga Premier Serie A Liga Premier Serie A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 La Tribu de Cd. Juarez 4 3 0 1 10
1 Artesanos Metepec 4 4 0 0 13
2 Acatlan 5 3 1 1 10
2 Dragones de Oaxaca 4 3 1 0 11
3 Mineros de Fresnillo 4 2 2 0 8
3 CDM 4 3 1 0 10
4 Atlético Saltillo 5 3 0 2 8
4 Real Refineros 5 2 1 2 7
5 Vaqueros Reynosa 4 2 1 1 7
5 Guerreros del Pacifico 4 2 0 2 6
6 FC Santiago 5 2 0 3 6
6 Calor de San Pedro 3 1 1 1 5
7 Real Apodaca 4 1 1 2 4
7 Delfines Coatzacoalcos 4 1 1 2 5
8 Guerreros 4 1 0 3 3
8 Halcones Negros 4 1 1 2 4
9 Correcaminos UAT II 3 0 2 1 2
9 Ciervos 5 1 0 4 2
10 Héroes de Zaci 4 0 1 3 2
10 Cañoneros Marina 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CDM 4 12 2 +10 10
2 La Tribu de Cd. Juarez 4 11 4 +7 10
3 Artesanos Metepec 4 10 2 +8 13
4 Acatlan 5 9 6 +3 10
5 Atlético Saltillo 5 9 12 -3 8
6 Dragones de Oaxaca 4 8 2 +6 11
7 FC Santiago 5 7 5 +2 6
8 Vaqueros Reynosa 4 7 6 +1 7
9 Real Refineros 5 7 7 0 7
10 Halcones Negros 4 5 4 +1 4
11 Delfines Coatzacoalcos 4 5 5 0 5
12 Real Apodaca 4 5 7 -2 4
13 Guerreros 4 5 10 -5 3
14 Mineros de Fresnillo 4 4 0 +4 8
15 Calor de San Pedro 3 4 3 +1 5
16 Guerreros del Pacifico 4 4 4 0 6
17 Héroes de Zaci 4 3 8 -5 2
18 Ciervos 5 3 14 -11 2
19 Correcaminos UAT II 3 1 3 -2 2
20 Cañoneros Marina 5 1 16 -15 0
Liga Premier Serie A Mexico. Liga Premier Serie A Predictions