Real Refineros vs Calor de San Pedro Statistics & Analysis

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Real Refineros

Sep 12, 2026 - 22:00

0 1.26

0 1.34

xG Accuracy: 49%

Calor de San Pedro

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Calor de San Pedro Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 03:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7470528

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Real Refineros 0–0 Calor de San Pedro

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Liga Premier Serie A
Fixture: Real Refineros vs Calor de San Pedro
Kickoff: 2026-09-12 22:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
xG (showing): Real Refineros 1.26 — Calor de San Pedro 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Liga Premier Serie A — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	La Tribu de Cd. Juarez	4	3	0	1	10
1	Artesanos Metepec	4	4	0	0	13
2	Acatlan	5	3	1	1	10
2	Dragones de Oaxaca	4	3	1	0	11
3	Mineros de Fresnillo	4	2	2	0	8
3	CDM	4	3	1	0	10
4	Atlético Saltillo	5	3	0	2	8
4	Real Refineros	5	2	1	2	7
5	Vaqueros Reynosa	4	2	1	1	7
5	Guerreros del Pacifico	4	2	0	2	6
6	FC Santiago	5	2	0	3	6
6	Calor de San Pedro	3	1	1	1	5
7	Real Apodaca	4	1	1	2	4
7	Delfines Coatzacoalcos	4	1	1	2	5
8	Guerreros	4	1	0	3	3
8	Halcones Negros	4	1	1	2	4
9	Correcaminos UAT II	3	0	2	1	2
9	Ciervos	5	1	0	4	2
10	Héroes de Zaci	4	0	1	3	2
10	Cañoneros Marina	5	0	0	5	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	CDM	4	12	2	+10	10
2	La Tribu de Cd. Juarez	4	11	4	+7	10
3	Artesanos Metepec	4	10	2	+8	13
4	Acatlan	5	9	6	+3	10
5	Atlético Saltillo	5	9	12	-3	8
6	Dragones de Oaxaca	4	8	2	+6	11
7	FC Santiago	5	7	5	+2	6
8	Vaqueros Reynosa	4	7	6	+1	7
9	Real Refineros	5	7	7	0	7
10	Halcones Negros	4	5	4	+1	4
11	Delfines Coatzacoalcos	4	5	5	0	5
12	Real Apodaca	4	5	7	-2	4
13	Guerreros	4	5	10	-5	3
14	Mineros de Fresnillo	4	4	0	+4	8
15	Calor de San Pedro	3	4	3	+1	5
16	Guerreros del Pacifico	4	4	4	0	6
17	Héroes de Zaci	4	3	8	-5	2
18	Ciervos	5	3	14	-11	2
19	Correcaminos UAT II	3	1	3	-2	2
20	Cañoneros Marina	5	1	16	-15	0