Acatlan vs Real Apodaca Statistics & Analysis

Acatlan

Sep 12, 2026 - 01:30

4 1.12

1 1.48

xG Accuracy: 40%

Real Apodaca

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Real Apodaca Acatlan ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 00:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7417032

Closing Odds 1.28

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Acatlan win · Acatlan 4–1 Real Apodaca

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Acatlan (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 22.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Acatlan (1X2)	27.1	12.0	+15.1
Draw (1X2)	29.1	17.9	+11.1
Real Apodaca (1X2)	43.9	70.1	-26.2
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	71.0	-22.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	29.0	+22.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 29.0%. The difference — about 22.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Acatlan (1X2)	7.5	7.5
Draw (1X2)	5.0	5.0
Real Apodaca (1X2)	1.28	1.28
Over 2.5 goals	1.33	1.33
Under 2.5 goals	3.25	3.25

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga Premier Serie A
Fixture: Acatlan vs Real Apodaca
Kickoff: 2026-09-12 01:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 27.1% · Draw 29.1% · Away 43.9%
xG (showing): Acatlan 1.12 — Real Apodaca 1.48 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Acatlan & Real Apodaca!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

Liga Premier Serie A — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	La Tribu de Cd. Juarez	4	3	0	1	10
1	Artesanos Metepec	4	4	0	0	13
2	Acatlan	5	3	1	1	10
2	Dragones de Oaxaca	4	3	1	0	11
3	Mineros de Fresnillo	4	2	2	0	8
3	CDM	4	3	1	0	10
4	Atlético Saltillo	5	3	0	2	8
4	Real Refineros	5	2	1	2	7
5	Vaqueros Reynosa	4	2	1	1	7
5	Guerreros del Pacifico	4	2	0	2	6
6	FC Santiago	5	2	0	3	6
6	Calor de San Pedro	3	1	1	1	5
7	Real Apodaca	4	1	1	2	4
7	Delfines Coatzacoalcos	4	1	1	2	5
8	Guerreros	4	1	0	3	3
8	Halcones Negros	4	1	1	2	4
9	Correcaminos UAT II	3	0	2	1	2
9	Ciervos	5	1	0	4	2
10	Héroes de Zaci	4	0	1	3	2
10	Cañoneros Marina	5	0	0	5	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	CDM	4	12	2	+10	10
2	La Tribu de Cd. Juarez	4	11	4	+7	10
3	Artesanos Metepec	4	10	2	+8	13
4	Acatlan	5	9	6	+3	10
5	Atlético Saltillo	5	9	12	-3	8
6	Dragones de Oaxaca	4	8	2	+6	11
7	FC Santiago	5	7	5	+2	6
8	Vaqueros Reynosa	4	7	6	+1	7
9	Real Refineros	5	7	7	0	7
10	Halcones Negros	4	5	4	+1	4
11	Delfines Coatzacoalcos	4	5	5	0	5
12	Real Apodaca	4	5	7	-2	4
13	Guerreros	4	5	10	-5	3
14	Mineros de Fresnillo	4	4	0	+4	8
15	Calor de San Pedro	3	4	3	+1	5
16	Guerreros del Pacifico	4	4	4	0	6
17	Héroes de Zaci	4	3	8	-5	2
18	Ciervos	5	3	14	-11	2
19	Correcaminos UAT II	3	1	3	-2	2
20	Cañoneros Marina	5	1	16	-15	0