Statistics / Football / Mexico. Liga Premier Serie A / Correcaminos UAT II vs Héroes de Zaci

Correcaminos UAT II vs Héroes de Zaci Statistics & Analysis

Correcaminos UAT II Correcaminos UAT II
Sep 30, 2026 - 23:00
3 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 44%
Héroes de Zaci Héroes de Zaci
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Correcaminos UAT II Correcaminos UAT II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 00:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5117414

Closing Odds 2.0
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Correcaminos UAT II win · Correcaminos UAT II 3–0 Héroes de Zaci
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Héroes de Zaci (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Héroes de Zaci (1X2) by about 4.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Correcaminos UAT II (1X2) 36.1 44.7 -8.6
Draw (1X2) 29.7 25.5 +4.1
Héroes de Zaci (1X2) 34.2 29.8 +4.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 48.7 -0.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 51.3 +0.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Héroes de Zaci (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 29.8%. The difference — about 4.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Correcaminos UAT II (1X2) 2.0 2.0 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.5 3.5 0.0
Héroes de Zaci (1X2) 3.0 3.0 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.95 1.95 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.85 1.85 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga Premier Serie A
  • Fixture: Correcaminos UAT II vs Héroes de Zaci
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-30 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Correcaminos UAT II 1.32 — Héroes de Zaci 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 49.1% · Probability edge: +5.4 pts · Est. EV: +6.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Premier Serie A Liga Premier Serie A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 La Tribu de Cd. Juarez 6 4 0 2 13
1 Artesanos Metepec 6 6 0 0 19
2 Acatlan 6 4 1 1 13
2 Dragones de Oaxaca 5 3 1 1 12
3 Mineros de Fresnillo 6 3 2 1 11
3 Halcones Negros 6 3 1 2 10
4 Vaqueros Reynosa 5 3 1 1 10
4 CDM 6 3 1 2 10
5 Correcaminos UAT II 6 2 2 2 8
5 Delfines Coatzacoalcos 6 2 2 2 8
6 Atlético Saltillo 6 3 0 3 8
6 Guerreros del Pacifico 5 2 1 2 8
7 FC Santiago 5 2 0 3 6
7 Calor de San Pedro 5 2 1 2 8
8 Guerreros 5 2 0 3 6
8 Real Refineros 5 2 1 2 7
9 Real Apodaca 5 1 1 3 4
9 Ciervos 6 1 0 5 2
10 Héroes de Zaci 6 0 1 5 2
10 Cañoneros Marina 6 0 0 6 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Halcones Negros 6 17 4 +13 10
2 Artesanos Metepec 6 16 4 +12 19
3 CDM 6 16 8 +8 10
4 La Tribu de Cd. Juarez 6 15 8 +7 13
5 Dragones de Oaxaca 5 11 5 +6 12
6 Acatlan 6 10 6 +4 13
7 Vaqueros Reynosa 5 9 7 +2 10
8 Atlético Saltillo 6 9 15 -6 8
9 Mineros de Fresnillo 6 8 2 +6 11
10 Delfines Coatzacoalcos 6 8 8 0 8
11 Guerreros 5 8 10 -2 6
12 FC Santiago 5 7 5 +2 6
13 Correcaminos UAT II 6 7 7 0 8
14 Real Refineros 5 7 7 0 7
15 Calor de San Pedro 5 7 12 -5 8
16 Real Apodaca 5 6 10 -4 4
17 Guerreros del Pacifico 5 4 4 0 8
18 Héroes de Zaci 6 3 12 -9 2
19 Ciervos 6 3 19 -16 2
20 Cañoneros Marina 6 1 19 -18 0
Liga Premier Serie A Mexico. Liga Premier Serie A Predictions