Irapuato II vs Atletico Hidalgo Statistics & Analysis

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Irapuato II

Sep 05, 2026 - 18:00

2 1.32

1 1.28

xG Accuracy: 77%

Atletico Hidalgo

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Irapuato II Irapuato II ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 04:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6167217

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Irapuato II win · Irapuato II 2–1 Atletico Hidalgo

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Liga Premier Serie B
Fixture: Irapuato II vs Atletico Hidalgo
Kickoff: 2026-09-05 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Irapuato II 1.32 — Atletico Hidalgo 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Premier Serie B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	L	PTS
1	Racing de Veracruz 2	2	2	0	6
2	Celaya 2	2	2	0	6
3	Cruz Azul Lagunas	3	2	1	6
4	Deportivo Ayense	3	1	2	3
5	Internacional Laguna	2	1	1	3
6	Irapuato II	2	1	1	3
7	Heroes de Zaci 2	2	1	1	3
8	Gorilas de Juanacatlan	3	1	2	3
9	Huracanes Izcalli	3	1	2	3
10	Atletico Hidalgo	2	0	2	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Racing de Veracruz 2	2	5	2	+3	6
2	Celaya 2	2	4	2	+2	6
3	Cruz Azul Lagunas	3	4	3	+1	6
4	Deportivo Ayense	3	3	3	0	3
5	Internacional Laguna	2	3	3	0	3
6	Irapuato II	2	3	3	0	3
7	Gorilas de Juanacatlan	3	3	4	-1	3
8	Heroes de Zaci 2	2	2	2	0	3
9	Huracanes Izcalli	3	2	4	-2	3
10	Atletico Hidalgo	2	2	5	-3	0