Statistics / Football / Iran. Persian Gulf Pro League / Shams Azar Qazvin vs Tractor Sazi

Shams Azar Qazvin vs Tractor Sazi Statistics & Analysis

Shams Azar Qazvin Shams Azar Qazvin
Sep 01, 2026 - 15:45
0 1.16
0 1.44
xG Accuracy: 49%
Tractor Sazi Tractor Sazi
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Tractor Sazi Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 26, 2026 · 02:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5502714

Closing Odds 1.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Shams Azar Qazvin 0–0 Tractor Sazi
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.93 percentage points on Shams Azar Qazvin (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on BTTS Yes by about 19.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Shams Azar Qazvin (1X2) 28.8 12.5 +16.3
Draw (1X2) 29.3 26.6 +2.7
Tractor Sazi (1X2) 41.9 60.9 -19.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 36.3 +11.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 63.7 -11.9
BTTS Yes 54.0 34.2 +19.8
BTTS No 46.0 65.8 -19.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 54.0% on BTTS Yes, while the closing snapshot implied about 34.2%. The difference — about 19.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Shams Azar Qazvin (1X2) 6.7 7.2 -0.9
Draw (1X2) 3.44 3.38 +0.5
Tractor Sazi (1X2) 1.49 1.48 +0.4
Over 2.5 goals 2.46 2.49 -0.4
Under 2.5 goals 1.43 1.42 +0.4
BTTS Yes 2.6 2.67 -0.9
BTTS No 1.41 1.39 +0.9

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Persian Gulf Pro League
  • Fixture: Shams Azar Qazvin vs Tractor Sazi
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-01 15:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Away 41.9%
  • xG (showing): Shams Azar Qazvin 1.16 — Tractor Sazi 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Persian Gulf Pro League Persian Gulf Pro League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tractor Sazi 7 5 1 1 16
2 Esteghlal FC 7 4 3 0 15
3 Persepolis FC 6 4 1 1 13
4 Aluminium Arak 6 3 3 0 12
5 Sepahan FC 6 3 1 2 10
6 Gol Gohar 7 3 1 3 10
7 Foolad FC 6 2 3 1 9
8 Paykan 7 2 2 3 8
9 Nassaji Mazandaran 7 2 2 3 8
10 Chadormalu SC 7 2 2 3 8
11 Fajr Sepasi 6 1 4 1 7
12 Malavan 6 2 1 3 7
13 Kheybar Khorramabad 6 1 3 2 6
14 ZOB Ahan 6 1 3 2 6
15 Esteghlal Khuzestan 7 1 3 3 6
16 Shams Azar Qazvin 7 1 2 4 5
17 Mes Shahr-e Babak 7 0 5 2 5
18 Sanat Naft 7 0 4 3 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Persepolis FC 6 12 3 +9 13
2 Esteghlal FC 7 9 1 +8 15
3 Tractor Sazi 7 8 1 +7 16
4 Aluminium Arak 6 8 3 +5 12
5 Kheybar Khorramabad 6 8 8 0 6
6 Gol Gohar 7 7 7 0 10
7 Shams Azar Qazvin 7 6 9 -3 5
8 Foolad FC 6 5 3 +2 9
9 Sepahan FC 6 5 4 +1 10
10 Paykan 7 5 6 -1 8
11 Malavan 6 5 8 -3 7
12 Mes Shahr-e Babak 7 5 10 -5 5
13 Nassaji Mazandaran 7 4 6 -2 8
14 Chadormalu SC 7 4 9 -5 8
15 Esteghlal Khuzestan 7 4 9 -5 6
16 Fajr Sepasi 6 3 3 0 7
17 ZOB Ahan 6 3 5 -2 6
18 Sanat Naft 7 2 8 -6 4