Academia Cantolao vs Molinos El Pirata Statistics & Analysis

Academia Cantolao

Aug 23, 2026 - 15:45

1 1.30

xG Accuracy: 85%

Molinos El Pirata

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Academia Cantolao Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 22, 2026 · 02:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4928324

Closing Odds 1.81

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Academia Cantolao 1–1 Molinos El Pirata

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.45 percentage points on Molinos El Pirata (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Academia Cantolao (1X2) by about 8.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Academia Cantolao (1X2)	35.2	26.5	+8.7
Draw (1X2)	29.6	24.4	+5.2
Molinos El Pirata (1X2)	35.2	49.1	-13.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	56.4	-8.2
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	43.6	+8.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.2% on Academia Cantolao (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 26.5%. The difference — about 8.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Academia Cantolao (1X2)	3.2	3.36	-1.1
Draw (1X2)	3.56	3.64	-0.3
Molinos El Pirata (1X2)	1.85	1.81	+1.4
Over 2.5 goals	1.63	1.63	+0.2
Under 2.5 goals	2.09	2.11	-0.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Segunda División
Fixture: Academia Cantolao vs Molinos El Pirata
Kickoff: 2026-08-23 15:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
xG (showing): Academia Cantolao 1.3 — Molinos El Pirata 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 44.6% · Probability edge: +7.2 pts · Est. EV: +9.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Union Comercio	16	9	5	2	32
2	Carlos A. Mannucci	16	9	3	4	30
3	Deportivo Llacuabamba	16	8	4	4	28
4	Molinos El Pirata	16	7	4	5	25
5	U. San Martin	16	7	3	6	24
6	Deportiva Agropecuaria	15	5	6	4	21
7	Cesar Vallejo	15	5	4	6	19
8	Academia Cantolao	16	3	5	8	14
9	San Marcos	14	0	0	14	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	U. San Martin	16	26	17	+9	24
2	Molinos El Pirata	16	25	20	+5	25
3	Deportivo Llacuabamba	16	23	10	+13	28
4	Carlos A. Mannucci	16	22	12	+10	30
5	Union Comercio	16	19	5	+14	32
6	Academia Cantolao	16	19	30	-11	14
7	Deportiva Agropecuaria	15	14	12	+2	21
8	Cesar Vallejo	15	14	13	+1	19
9	San Marcos	14	1	44	-43	0