Ingenieros vs Chaco Statistics & Analysis

Ingenieros

Aug 24, 2026 - 19:00

4 1.34

1 1.26

xG Accuracy: 45%

Chaco

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Ingenieros Ingenieros ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 22, 2026 · 00:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4908497

Closing Odds 1.39

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Ingenieros win · Ingenieros 4–1 Chaco

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Chaco (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Chaco (1X2) by about 15.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Ingenieros (1X2)	37.0	63.9	-26.9
Draw (1X2)	29.6	17.8	+11.8
Chaco (1X2)	33.4	18.2	+15.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.4% on Chaco (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.2%. The difference — about 15.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Ingenieros (1X2)	1.39	1.39
Draw (1X2)	4.99	4.99
Chaco (1X2)	4.87	4.87

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Nacional B
Fixture: Ingenieros vs Chaco
Kickoff: 2026-08-24 19:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
xG (showing): Ingenieros 1.34 — Chaco 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Nacional B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	EM Huanuni	6	4	2	0	14
1	26 de Febrero	6	5	0	1	15
1	Wilstermann Cooperativa	6	3	1	2	10
1	Independiente CBBA	6	5	0	1	15
1	Virginia	6	4	2	0	14
1	CD IN San Juan FC	5	3	1	1	10
1	Primero Mayo	6	4	0	2	12
2	Atletico Sucre	6	3	0	3	9
2	Deportivo FATIC	6	3	1	2	10
2	Hiska Nacional	6	2	1	3	7
2	Mineros Potosi	6	3	1	2	10
2	Municipal Tiquipaya	6	3	2	1	11
2	Deportivo Tigres	5	2	2	1	8
2	Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz	6	3	2	1	11
3	Club Universitario	6	2	2	2	8
4	Ingenieros	5	1	1	3	4
4	Atletico Juniors	6	0	0	6	0
4	Universitario Beni	5	0	0	5	0
4	Unión Tarija	5	2	0	3	6
4	CD Guadalajara	5	0	2	3	2
4	Universitario Tarija	6	1	1	4	4
4	Libertad	6	0	1	5	1
5	Chaco	5	2	0	3	6
6	San Martin de Yacuiba	5	2	0	3	6

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Mineros Potosi	6	20	8	+12	10
2	Municipal Tiquipaya	6	15	4	+11	11
3	Atletico Sucre	6	15	8	+7	9
4	Wilstermann Cooperativa	6	15	12	+3	10
5	26 de Febrero	6	14	6	+8	15
6	EM Huanuni	6	13	4	+9	14
7	Deportivo FATIC	6	13	7	+6	10
8	Chaco	5	13	14	-1	6
9	Independiente CBBA	6	12	6	+6	15
10	CD IN San Juan FC	5	11	4	+7	10
11	Primero Mayo	6	11	10	+1	12
12	Virginia	6	10	3	+7	14
13	Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz	6	10	7	+3	11
14	Hiska Nacional	6	10	15	-5	7
15	Deportivo Tigres	5	9	4	+5	8
16	Ingenieros	5	9	11	-2	4
17	Club Universitario	6	8	8	0	8
18	Unión Tarija	5	7	6	+1	6
19	Universitario Tarija	6	5	17	-12	4
20	Atletico Juniors	6	5	26	-21	0
21	CD Guadalajara	5	4	9	-5	2
22	San Martin de Yacuiba	5	2	7	-5	6
23	Universitario Beni	5	2	15	-13	0
24	Libertad	6	0	22	-22	1