Statistics / Football / World. CONMEBOL Libertadores / LDU de Quito vs Palmeiras

LDU de Quito vs Palmeiras Statistics & Analysis

LDU de Quito LDU de Quito
Sep 16, 2026 - 22:00
3(3) 0.92
2(4) 1.81
xG Accuracy: 54%
Palmeiras Palmeiras
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Palmeiras LDU de Quito ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 11, 2026 · 02:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7988543

Closing Odds 3.11
AI Fair Odds 1.95
CLV +0.0%
Final Result LDU de Quito win · LDU de Quito 3–2 Palmeiras
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 51.4%
  • Historical Bucket: 50–55% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Palmeiras (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Palmeiras (1X2) by about 25.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
LDU de Quito (1X2) 17.4 37.1 -19.6
Draw (1X2) 25.7 31.9 -6.2
Palmeiras (1X2) 56.9 31.0 +25.9
Over 2.5 goals 51.4 37.3 +14.1
Under 2.5 goals 48.6 62.7 -14.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 56.9% on Palmeiras (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 31.0%. The difference — about 25.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
LDU de Quito (1X2) 2.6 2.6 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.02 3.02 0.0
Palmeiras (1X2) 3.11 3.11 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.57 2.57 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.53 1.53 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: CONMEBOL Libertadores
  • Fixture: LDU de Quito vs Palmeiras
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-16 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 17.4% · Draw 25.7% · Away 56.9%
  • xG (showing): LDU de Quito 0.92 — Palmeiras 1.81 (total xG ≈ 2.73)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.4% · Implied: 38.2% · Probability edge: +13.2 pts · Est. EV: +32.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 51.7% · No 48.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (11.8%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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CONMEBOL Libertadores CONMEBOL Libertadores — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Flamengo 6 5 1 0 16
2 Estudiantes L.P. 6 2 3 1 9
3 Independiente Medellin 6 2 1 3 7
4 Cusco 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Flamengo 6 14 2 +12 16
2 Estudiantes L.P. 6 6 5 +1 9
3 Independiente Medellin 6 6 11 -5 7
4 Cusco 6 4 12 -8 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Flamengo 6 3.4 1.0 +2.4 16
2 Estudiantes L.P. 6 3.6 1.3 +2.3 9
3 Independiente Medellin 6 — — — 7
4 Cusco 6 — — — 1