Statistics / Football / World. CONMEBOL Libertadores / Palmeiras vs LDU de Quito

Palmeiras vs LDU de Quito Statistics & Analysis

Palmeiras Palmeiras
Sep 09, 2026 - 22:00
1 2.02
0 0.83
xG Accuracy: 60%
LDU de Quito LDU de Quito
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Palmeiras Palmeiras ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 1-1, 3-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 03, 2026 · 08:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6754679

Closing Odds 1.26
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Palmeiras win · Palmeiras 1–0 LDU de Quito
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), LDU de Quito (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 7.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Palmeiras (1X2) 63.8 74.7 -11.0
Draw (1X2) 23.0 17.8 +5.1
LDU de Quito (1X2) 13.3 7.4 +5.8
Over 2.5 goals 54.2 46.7 +7.5
Under 2.5 goals 45.8 53.3 -7.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 54.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 46.7%. The difference — about 7.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Palmeiras (1X2) 1.26 1.26 0.0
Draw (1X2) 5.28 5.28 0.0
LDU de Quito (1X2) 12.69 12.69 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.03 2.03 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.78 1.78 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: CONMEBOL Libertadores
  • Fixture: Palmeiras vs LDU de Quito
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-09 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 63.8% · Draw 23.0% · Away 13.3%
  • xG (showing): Palmeiras 2.02 — LDU de Quito 0.83 (total xG ≈ 2.85)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 50.2% · Implied: 34.0% · Probability edge: +16.2 pts · Est. EV: +38.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 50.2% · No 49.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-0 (11.8%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
CONMEBOL Libertadores CONMEBOL Libertadores — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Flamengo 6 5 1 0 16
2 Estudiantes L.P. 6 2 3 1 9
3 Independiente Medellin 6 2 1 3 7
4 Cusco 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Flamengo 6 14 2 +12 16
2 Estudiantes L.P. 6 6 5 +1 9
3 Independiente Medellin 6 6 11 -5 7
4 Cusco 6 4 12 -8 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Flamengo 6 3.4 1.0 +2.4 16
2 Estudiantes L.P. 6 3.6 1.3 +2.3 9
3 Independiente Medellin 6 — — — 7
4 Cusco 6 — — — 1