Statistics / Football / Venezuela. Segunda División / Club Atletico Barinas vs Urena SC

Club Atletico Barinas vs Urena SC Statistics & Analysis

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Club Atletico Barinas
Aug 23, 2026 - 19:30
1 1.43
1 1.17
xG Accuracy: 85%
Urena SC Urena SC
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Club Atletico Barinas Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 22, 2026 · 02:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4932581

Closing Odds 2.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Club Atletico Barinas 1–1 Urena SC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Club Atletico Barinas (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 10.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Club Atletico Barinas (1X2) 41.4 39.5 +1.9
Draw (1X2) 29.4 24.6 +4.7
Urena SC (1X2) 29.3 35.9 -6.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 58.4 -10.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 41.6 +10.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 41.6%. The difference — about 10.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Club Atletico Barinas (1X2) 2.25 2.25 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.61 3.61 0.0
Urena SC (1X2) 2.48 2.48 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.56 1.56 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.19 2.19 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Segunda División
  • Fixture: Club Atletico Barinas vs Urena SC
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 19:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
  • xG (showing): Club Atletico Barinas 1.43 — Urena SC 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.9% · Probability edge: +7.9 pts · Est. EV: +14.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Deportivo Lara 27 18 6 3 60
2 Fundación Lara Deportiva 27 14 8 5 50
3 Urena SC 28 12 9 7 45
4 Yaracuyanos FC 27 11 7 9 40
5 Zamora FC B 27 11 7 9 40
6 Atletico el Vigia FC 28 9 7 12 34
7 Puerto Cabello II 28 8 7 13 31
8 Club Atletico Barinas 28 9 4 15 31
9 Real Frontera 28 3 3 22 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Club Atletico Barinas 28 49 59 -10 31
2 Fundación Lara Deportiva 27 48 27 +21 50
3 Deportivo Lara 27 46 20 +26 60
4 Zamora FC B 27 42 36 +6 40
5 Urena SC 28 41 34 +7 45
6 Puerto Cabello II 28 36 40 -4 31
7 Yaracuyanos FC 27 34 27 +7 40
8 Atletico el Vigia FC 28 32 45 -13 34
9 Real Frontera 28 22 62 -40 12
Segunda División Venezuela. Segunda División Predictions