Kawasaki Frontale vs Tochigi SC Statistics & Analysis

Kawasaki Frontale

Aug 26, 2026 - 10:00

3 1.30

1 1.30

xG Accuracy: 58%

Tochigi SC

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 21, 2026 · 01:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4767175

Closing Odds 1.25

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Kawasaki Frontale win · Kawasaki Frontale 3–1 Tochigi SC

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.0 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Tochigi SC (1X2) by about 24.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Kawasaki Frontale (1X2)	35.2	73.8	-38.7
Draw (1X2)	29.6	15.8	+13.8
Tochigi SC (1X2)	35.2	10.3	+24.8
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	62.3	-14.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	37.7	+14.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.2% on Tochigi SC (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 10.3%. The difference — about 24.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Kawasaki Frontale (1X2)	1.21	1.25	+0.3
Draw (1X2)	5.54	5.83	-0.2
Tochigi SC (1X2)	8.54	8.93	-0.1
Over 2.5 goals	1.5	1.51	+1.0
Under 2.5 goals	2.38	2.5	-1.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Kawasaki Frontale; market prices Kawasaki Frontale instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Kawasaki Frontale 1.30 xG vs Tochigi SC 1.30 → Kawasaki Frontale 35.2%
Market: Kawasaki Frontale ~73.8% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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