Statistics / Football / Azerbaijan. Birinci Dasta / Energetik vs Şimal

Energetik vs Şimal Statistics & Analysis

Energetik Energetik
Oct 15, 2026 - 11:00
1 1.55
4 1.05
xG Accuracy: 38%
Şimal Şimal
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Energetik Şimal ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 09, 2026 · 01:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-14187418

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Şimal win · Energetik 1–4 Şimal
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Birinci Dasta
  • Fixture: Energetik vs Şimal
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-15 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 47.3% · Draw 28.5% · Away 24.1%
  • xG (showing): Energetik 1.55 — Şimal 1.05 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 47.2% · Implied: 39.5% · Probability edge: +7.7 pts · Est. EV: +13.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.8% · No 47.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Birinci Dasta Birinci Dasta — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Şahdağ 5 4 0 1 12
2 Cəbrayıl 4 4 0 0 12
3 Səbail 5 3 2 0 11
4 Karvan 4 2 1 1 7
5 MOIK 4 2 1 1 7
6 Şimal 5 1 2 2 5
7 Xankəndi FK 5 1 2 2 5
8 Zaqatala 5 1 1 3 4
9 Energetik 5 0 1 4 1
10 Baku Sportinq 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Şahdağ 5 13 2 +11 12
2 Cəbrayıl 4 9 2 +7 12
3 Səbail 5 8 4 +4 11
4 Şimal 5 8 9 -1 5
5 Karvan 4 7 3 +4 7
6 MOIK 4 6 2 +4 7
7 Zaqatala 5 6 14 -8 4
8 Xankəndi FK 5 4 6 -2 5
9 Energetik 5 4 14 -10 1
10 Baku Sportinq 4 0 9 -9 0
Birinci Dasta Azerbaijan. Birinci Dasta Predictions