Statistics / Football / Azerbaijan. Birinci Dasta / Şimal vs Şahdağ

Şimal vs Şahdağ Statistics & Analysis

Şimal Şimal
Sep 17, 2026 - 12:30
1 1.15
4 1.45
xG Accuracy: 48%
Şahdağ Şahdağ
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Şahdağ Şahdağ ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 11, 2026 · 03:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7991963

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Şahdağ win · Şimal 1–4 Şahdağ
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Birinci Dasta
  • Fixture: Şimal vs Şahdağ
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-17 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 42.4%
  • xG (showing): Şimal 1.15 — Şahdağ 1.45 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Birinci Dasta Birinci Dasta — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Şahdağ 3 3 0 0 9
2 Cəbrayıl 3 3 0 0 9
3 Səbail 3 2 1 0 7
4 Karvan 3 2 0 1 6
5 MOIK 3 1 1 1 4
6 Zaqatala 3 1 1 1 4
7 Xankəndi FK 3 0 1 2 1
8 Energetik 3 0 1 2 1
9 Şimal 3 0 1 2 1
10 Baku Sportinq 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Şahdağ 3 7 1 +6 9
2 Cəbrayıl 3 7 2 +5 9
3 Karvan 3 6 2 +4 6
4 Zaqatala 3 5 5 0 4
5 Səbail 3 4 2 +2 7
6 MOIK 3 3 2 +1 4
7 Energetik 3 3 7 -4 1
8 Şimal 3 3 7 -4 1
9 Xankəndi FK 3 2 5 -3 1
10 Baku Sportinq 3 0 7 -7 0