Statistics / Football / World. AFC Cup / Phnom Penh Crown vs Kuching FA

Phnom Penh Crown vs Kuching FA Statistics & Analysis

Phnom Penh Crown Phnom Penh Crown
Sep 17, 2026 - 12:15
2 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 77%
Kuching FA Kuching FA
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Phnom Penh Crown Phnom Penh Crown ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 11, 2026 · 03:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7991734

Closing Odds 2.35
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Phnom Penh Crown win · Phnom Penh Crown 2–1 Kuching FA
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Phnom Penh Crown (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Phnom Penh Crown (1X2) by about 3.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Phnom Penh Crown (1X2) 36.1 33.1 +3.0
Draw (1X2) 29.7 29.1 +0.6
Kuching FA (1X2) 34.2 37.9 -3.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 48.8 -0.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 51.2 +0.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.1% on Phnom Penh Crown (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 33.1%. The difference — about 3.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Phnom Penh Crown (1X2) 2.69 2.69 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.06 3.06 0.0
Kuching FA (1X2) 2.35 2.35 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.9 1.9 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.81 1.81 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: AFC Cup
  • Fixture: Phnom Penh Crown vs Kuching FA
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-17 12:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Phnom Penh Crown 1.32 — Kuching FA 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.3% · Probability edge: +5.5 pts · Est. EV: +16.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
AFC Cup AFC Cup — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al Wahda FC 1 1 0 0 3
2 Nasaf 1 0 1 0 1
3 Khalidiya 1 0 1 0 1
4 Al Kuwait 1 0 0 1 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al Wahda FC 1 3 2 +1 3
2 Al Kuwait 1 2 3 -1 0
3 Nasaf 1 0 0 0 1
4 Khalidiya 1 0 0 0 1