Statistics / Football / Brazil. Gaúcho - 3 / Real vs Farroupilha

Real vs Farroupilha Statistics & Analysis

Real Real
Sep 30, 2026 - 18:00
4 1.28
0 1.32
xG Accuracy: 33%
Farroupilha Farroupilha
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Farroupilha Real ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 24, 2026 · 01:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10588610

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Real win · Real 4–0 Farroupilha
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Gaúcho - 3
  • Fixture: Real vs Farroupilha
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-30 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Real 1.28 — Farroupilha 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.9% · Probability edge: +7.9 pts · Est. EV: +11.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Gaúcho - 3 Gaúcho - 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Panambi 6 5 1 0 16
2 Real 4 3 1 0 10
3 Futebol Com Vida 6 2 4 0 10
4 Cruz A. 6 3 1 2 10
5 São Paulo RS 5 3 0 2 9
6 FBC Riograndense RS 6 2 1 3 7
7 Farroupilha 5 2 0 3 6
8 Clube 1992 5 1 0 4 3
9 EC Novo Horizonte 4 1 0 3 3
10 SC Rio Grande 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Panambi 6 12 3 +9 16
2 Real 4 11 1 +10 10
3 Cruz A. 6 9 7 +2 10
4 São Paulo RS 5 8 5 +3 9
5 Futebol Com Vida 6 6 3 +3 10
6 FBC Riograndense RS 6 6 8 -2 7
7 Clube 1992 5 6 8 -2 3
8 Farroupilha 5 5 10 -5 6
9 EC Novo Horizonte 4 3 9 -6 3
10 SC Rio Grande 5 2 14 -12 0
Gaúcho - 3 Brazil. Gaúcho - 3 Predictions