Farroupilha vs Cruz A. Statistics & Analysis

Farroupilha

Sep 26, 2026 - 18:00

2 1.32

1 1.28

xG Accuracy: 77%

⚽

Cruz A.

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Farroupilha Farroupilha ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10109514

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Farroupilha win · Farroupilha 2–1 Cruz A.

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Gaúcho - 3
Fixture: Farroupilha vs Cruz A.
Kickoff: 2026-09-27 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Farroupilha 1.32 — Cruz A. 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Gaúcho - 3 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Panambi	3	3	0	0	9
2	Futebol Com Vida	4	2	2	0	8
3	Real	3	2	1	0	7
4	FBC Riograndense RS	4	2	1	1	7
5	São Paulo RS	3	2	0	1	6
6	Farroupilha	4	2	0	2	6
7	Cruz A.	4	2	0	2	6
8	EC Novo Horizonte	3	1	0	2	3
9	Clube 1992	4	0	0	4	0
10	SC Rio Grande	4	0	0	4	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Panambi	3	9	2	+7	9
2	Real	3	7	1	+6	7
3	Futebol Com Vida	4	5	2	+3	8
4	São Paulo RS	3	5	3	+2	6
5	FBC Riograndense RS	4	5	4	+1	7
6	Farroupilha	4	5	6	-1	6
7	Cruz A.	4	5	7	-2	6
8	Clube 1992	4	4	8	-4	0
9	EC Novo Horizonte	3	3	7	-4	3
10	SC Rio Grande	4	2	10	-8	0