EC Novo Horizonte vs Real Statistics & Analysis

EC Novo Horizonte

Oct 07, 2026 - 18:00

0 1.25

9 1.35

xG Accuracy: 9%

Real

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Real Real ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-9 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10109536

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Real win · EC Novo Horizonte 0–9 Real

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Gaúcho - 3
Fixture: EC Novo Horizonte vs Real
Kickoff: 2026-09-27 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
xG (showing): EC Novo Horizonte 1.25 — Real 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Gaúcho - 3 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Panambi	6	5	1	0	16
2	Real	4	3	1	0	10
3	Futebol Com Vida	6	2	4	0	10
4	Cruz A.	6	3	1	2	10
5	São Paulo RS	5	3	0	2	9
6	FBC Riograndense RS	6	2	1	3	7
7	Farroupilha	5	2	0	3	6
8	Clube 1992	5	1	0	4	3
9	EC Novo Horizonte	4	1	0	3	3
10	SC Rio Grande	5	0	0	5	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Panambi	6	12	3	+9	16
2	Real	4	11	1	+10	10
3	Cruz A.	6	9	7	+2	10
4	São Paulo RS	5	8	5	+3	9
5	Futebol Com Vida	6	6	3	+3	10
6	FBC Riograndense RS	6	6	8	-2	7
7	Clube 1992	5	6	8	-2	3
8	Farroupilha	5	5	10	-5	6
9	EC Novo Horizonte	4	3	9	-6	3
10	SC Rio Grande	5	2	14	-12	0