Cruz A. vs Real Statistics & Analysis

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Cruz A.

Sep 20, 2026 - 18:00

0 1.35

3 1.25

xG Accuracy: 43%

Real

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Cruz A. Real ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8707614

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Real win · Cruz A. 0–3 Real

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Gaúcho - 3
Fixture: Cruz A. vs Real
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
xG (showing): Cruz A. 1.35 — Real 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Gaúcho - 3 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Panambi	3	3	0	0	9
2	Real	3	2	1	0	7
3	São Paulo RS	3	2	0	1	6
4	Cruz A.	3	2	0	1	6
5	Futebol Com Vida	3	1	2	0	5
6	FBC Riograndense RS	3	1	1	1	4
7	Farroupilha	3	1	0	2	3
8	EC Novo Horizonte	3	1	0	2	3
9	Clube 1992	3	0	0	3	0
10	SC Rio Grande	3	0	0	3	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Panambi	3	9	2	+7	9
2	Real	3	7	1	+6	7
3	São Paulo RS	3	5	3	+2	6
4	Cruz A.	3	4	5	-1	6
5	Futebol Com Vida	3	3	1	+2	5
6	FBC Riograndense RS	3	3	3	0	4
7	Farroupilha	3	3	5	-2	3
8	Clube 1992	3	3	6	-3	0
9	EC Novo Horizonte	3	3	7	-4	3
10	SC Rio Grande	3	1	8	-7	0