Statistics / Football / Slovakia. Cup / Spartak Myjava vs Galanta

Spartak Myjava vs Galanta Statistics & Analysis

Spartak Myjava Spartak Myjava
Sep 15, 2026 - 15:30
2 1.37
1 1.23
xG Accuracy: 79%
Galanta Galanta
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Spartak Myjava Spartak Myjava ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 27, 2026 · 07:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5651948

Closing Odds 2.04
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Spartak Myjava win · Spartak Myjava 2–1 Galanta
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.91 percentage points on Spartak Myjava (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 12.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Spartak Myjava (1X2) 38.5 30.6 +7.8
Draw (1X2) 29.6 25.8 +3.8
Galanta (1X2) 31.9 43.6 -11.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 60.4 -12.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 39.6 +12.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 39.6%. The difference — about 12.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Spartak Myjava (1X2) 3.09 2.9 +1.9
Draw (1X2) 3.28 3.45 -1.3
Galanta (1X2) 2.01 2.04 -0.6
Over 2.5 goals 1.54 1.51 +1.1
Under 2.5 goals 2.24 2.3 -1.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Cup
  • Fixture: Spartak Myjava vs Galanta
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-15 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Spartak Myjava 1.37 — Galanta 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.4% · Probability edge: +11.4 pts · Est. EV: +21.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 18, 2026 (UTC)

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