Sheriff Tiraspol vs CSF Bălți Statistics & Analysis

Sheriff Tiraspol

Sep 20, 2026 - 16:00

7 1.51

0 1.09

xG Accuracy: 16%

CSF Bălți

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Sheriff Tiraspol Sheriff Tiraspol ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 7-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8691485

Closing Odds 1.03

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Sheriff Tiraspol win · Sheriff Tiraspol 7–0 CSF Bălți

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), CSF Bălți (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 26.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Sheriff Tiraspol (1X2)	45.3	92.1	-46.8
Draw (1X2)	28.9	5.6	+23.3
CSF Bălți (1X2)	25.8	2.3	+23.5
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	75.0	-26.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	25.0	+26.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 25.0%. The difference — about 26.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Sheriff Tiraspol (1X2)	1.03	1.03
Draw (1X2)	17.0	17.0
CSF Bălți (1X2)	41.0	41.0
Over 2.5 goals	1.25	1.25
Under 2.5 goals	3.75	3.75

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Sheriff Tiraspol; market prices Sheriff Tiraspol instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Sheriff Tiraspol 1.51 xG vs CSF Bălți 1.09 → Sheriff Tiraspol 45.3%
Market: Sheriff Tiraspol ~92.1% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Sheriff Tiraspol & CSF Bălți!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

Super Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Sheriff Tiraspol	13	8	4	1	28
2	Zimbru	13	8	2	3	26
3	Petrocub	13	7	3	3	24
4	Dacia-Buiucani	13	6	2	5	20
5	Milsami Orhei	13	4	5	4	17
6	Politehnica UTM	13	4	3	6	15
7	Sireți	13	0	7	6	7
8	CSF Bălți	13	1	2	10	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Sheriff Tiraspol	13	32	10	+22	28
2	Zimbru	13	27	12	+15	26
3	Petrocub	13	24	13	+11	24
4	Politehnica UTM	13	18	19	-1	15
5	Dacia-Buiucani	13	17	16	+1	20
6	Milsami Orhei	13	13	17	-4	17
7	CSF Bălți	13	9	42	-33	5
8	Sireți	13	8	19	-11	7