Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Gharafa Statistics & Analysis

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

Sep 15, 2026 - 18:15

2 1.75

1 1.19

xG Accuracy: 89%

Al-Gharafa

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC Al-Hilal Saudi FC ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 09, 2026 · 02:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7704198

Closing Odds 1.06

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Al-Hilal Saudi FC win · Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2–1 Al-Gharafa

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Al-Gharafa (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 23.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (1X2)	66.1	89.5	-23.4
Draw (1X2)	19.6	7.1	+12.5
Al-Gharafa (1X2)	14.2	3.3	+10.9
Over 2.5 goals	56.3	79.8	-23.5
Under 2.5 goals	43.7	20.2	+23.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 43.7% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 20.2%. The difference — about 23.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (1X2)	1.06	1.06
Draw (1X2)	13.31	13.31
Al-Gharafa (1X2)	28.53	28.53
Over 2.5 goals	1.18	1.18
Under 2.5 goals	4.66	4.66

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: AFC Champions League
Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Gharafa
Kickoff: 2026-09-15 18:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 66.1% · Draw 19.7% · Away 14.2%
xG (showing): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.75 — Al-Gharafa 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.94)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.3%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 43.7% · Over 2.5 56.3%); BTTS Yes (Yes 58.9% · No 41.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 58.9% · No 41.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.0%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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