Statistics / Football / World. AFC Champions League / Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Wasl FC

Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Wasl FC Statistics & Analysis

Sep 14, 2026 - 18:15
2 1.33
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 77%
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Al-Qadisiyah FC Al-Qadisiyah FC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 08, 2026 · 02:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7573432

Closing Odds 1.42
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Al-Qadisiyah FC win · Al-Qadisiyah FC 2–1 Al-Wasl FC
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.28 percentage points on Al-Qadisiyah FC (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Al-Wasl FC (1X2) by about 18.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Al-Qadisiyah FC (1X2) 36.6 66.6 -30.0
Draw (1X2) 29.6 18.3 +11.3
Al-Wasl FC (1X2) 33.8 15.0 +18.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 65.6 -17.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 34.4 +17.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.8% on Al-Wasl FC (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 15.0%. The difference — about 18.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Al-Qadisiyah FC (1X2) 1.39 1.42 -1.3
Draw (1X2) 5.28 5.16 +0.5
Al-Wasl FC (1X2) 6.65 6.3 +0.8
Over 2.5 goals 1.44 1.44 -0.2
Under 2.5 goals 2.77 2.75 +0.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Al-Qadisiyah FC; market prices Al-Qadisiyah FC instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.33 xG vs Al-Wasl FC 1.27 → Al-Qadisiyah FC 36.6%
  • Market: Al-Qadisiyah FC ~66.6% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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AFC Champions League AFC Champions League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al Ain 1 1 0 0 3
2 Esteghlal FC 1 1 0 0 3
3 Al-Qadisiyah FC 1 1 0 0 3
4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1 1 0 0 3
5 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1 1 0 0 3
6 Neftchi 1 1 0 0 3
7 Al-Ittihad FC 1 0 1 0 1
8 Al Shamal 1 0 1 0 1
9 Pakhtakor 1 0 1 0 1
10 Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 0 1 0 1
11 Al-Wasl FC 1 0 0 1 0
12 Al-Gharafa 1 0 0 1 0
13 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1 0 0 1 0
14 Tractor Sazi 1 0 0 1 0
15 Al Sadd 1 0 0 1 0
16 Al-Nassr 1 0 0 1 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al Ain 1 4 0 +4 3
2 Esteghlal FC 1 3 0 +3 3
3 Al-Qadisiyah FC 1 2 1 +1 3
4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1 2 1 +1 3
5 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1 1 0 +1 3
6 Neftchi 1 1 0 +1 3
7 Al-Ittihad FC 1 1 1 0 1
8 Al Shamal 1 1 1 0 1
9 Pakhtakor 1 1 1 0 1
10 Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 1 1 0 1
11 Al-Wasl FC 1 1 2 -1 0
12 Al-Gharafa 1 1 2 -1 0
13 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1 0 1 -1 0
14 Tractor Sazi 1 0 1 -1 0
15 Al Sadd 1 0 3 -3 0
16 Al-Nassr 1 0 4 -4 0
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Al Ain 1 — — — 3
2 Esteghlal FC 1 — — — 3
3 Al-Qadisiyah FC 1 — — — 3
4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1 — — — 3
5 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1 — — — 3
6 Neftchi 1 — — — 3
7 Al-Ittihad FC 1 — — — 1
8 Al Shamal 1 — — — 1
9 Pakhtakor 1 — — — 1
10 Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 — — — 1
11 Al-Wasl FC 1 — — — 0
12 Al-Gharafa 1 — — — 0
13 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1 — — — 0
14 Tractor Sazi 1 — — — 0
15 Al Sadd 1 — — — 0
16 Al-Nassr 1 — — — 0