Statistics / Football / World. AFC Champions League / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Tractor Sazi

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Tractor Sazi Statistics & Analysis

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Sep 14, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.27
0 1.33
xG Accuracy: 64%
Tractor Sazi Tractor Sazi
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Tractor Sazi Shabab Al Ahli Dubai ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 08, 2026 · 02:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7572100

Closing Odds 1.78
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1–0 Tractor Sazi
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Tractor Sazi (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Tractor Sazi (1X2) by about 15.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (1X2) 33.8 53.4 -19.6
Draw (1X2) 29.6 25.6 +4.0
Tractor Sazi (1X2) 36.6 21.0 +15.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 44.0 +4.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 56.0 -4.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.6% on Tractor Sazi (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 21.0%. The difference — about 15.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (1X2) 1.78 1.78 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.71 3.71 0.0
Tractor Sazi (1X2) 4.53 4.53 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.16 2.16 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.7 1.7 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: AFC Champions League
  • Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Tractor Sazi
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-14 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.27 — Tractor Sazi 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 47.4% · Probability edge: +7.1 pts · Est. EV: +9.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
AFC Champions League AFC Champions League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al Ain 1 1 0 0 3
2 Esteghlal FC 1 1 0 0 3
3 Al-Qadisiyah FC 1 1 0 0 3
4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1 1 0 0 3
5 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1 1 0 0 3
6 Neftchi 1 1 0 0 3
7 Al-Ittihad FC 1 0 1 0 1
8 Al Shamal 1 0 1 0 1
9 Pakhtakor 1 0 1 0 1
10 Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 0 1 0 1
11 Al-Wasl FC 1 0 0 1 0
12 Al-Gharafa 1 0 0 1 0
13 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1 0 0 1 0
14 Tractor Sazi 1 0 0 1 0
15 Al Sadd 1 0 0 1 0
16 Al-Nassr 1 0 0 1 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al Ain 1 4 0 +4 3
2 Esteghlal FC 1 3 0 +3 3
3 Al-Qadisiyah FC 1 2 1 +1 3
4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1 2 1 +1 3
5 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1 1 0 +1 3
6 Neftchi 1 1 0 +1 3
7 Al-Ittihad FC 1 1 1 0 1
8 Al Shamal 1 1 1 0 1
9 Pakhtakor 1 1 1 0 1
10 Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 1 1 0 1
11 Al-Wasl FC 1 1 2 -1 0
12 Al-Gharafa 1 1 2 -1 0
13 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1 0 1 -1 0
14 Tractor Sazi 1 0 1 -1 0
15 Al Sadd 1 0 3 -3 0
16 Al-Nassr 1 0 4 -4 0
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Al Ain 1 — — — 3
2 Esteghlal FC 1 — — — 3
3 Al-Qadisiyah FC 1 — — — 3
4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1 — — — 3
5 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1 — — — 3
6 Neftchi 1 — — — 3
7 Al-Ittihad FC 1 — — — 1
8 Al Shamal 1 — — — 1
9 Pakhtakor 1 — — — 1
10 Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 — — — 1
11 Al-Wasl FC 1 — — — 0
12 Al-Gharafa 1 — — — 0
13 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1 — — — 0
14 Tractor Sazi 1 — — — 0
15 Al Sadd 1 — — — 0
16 Al-Nassr 1 — — — 0