Statistics / Football / Malta. Challenge League / Vittoriosa Stars vs Gudja United

Vittoriosa Stars vs Gudja United Statistics & Analysis

Vittoriosa Stars Vittoriosa Stars
Sep 19, 2026 - 18:30
2 1.29
0 1.31
xG Accuracy: 57%
Gudja United Gudja United
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Gudja United Vittoriosa Stars ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8708216

Closing Odds 3.5
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Vittoriosa Stars win · Vittoriosa Stars 2–0 Gudja United
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE10 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 8.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Vittoriosa Stars (1X2) 34.7 37.5 -2.8
Draw (1X2) 29.7 25.7 +4.0
Gudja United (1X2) 35.6 36.8 -1.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 57.1 -8.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 42.9 +8.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 42.9%. The difference — about 8.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE10) Implied Δ (pp)
Vittoriosa Stars (1X2) 2.4 2.4 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.5 3.5 0.0
Gudja United (1X2) 2.45 2.45 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.65 1.65 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.2 2.2 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Challenge League
  • Fixture: Vittoriosa Stars vs Gudja United
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Vittoriosa Stars 1.29 — Gudja United 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.5% · Probability edge: +5.3 pts · Est. EV: +14.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Challenge League Challenge League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tarxien Rainbows 2 2 0 0 6
2 Victoria Hotspurs 2 2 0 0 6
3 Fgura United 2 1 1 0 4
4 Vittoriosa Stars 2 1 1 0 4
5 Swieqi United 2 1 1 0 4
6 Sirens 2 1 1 0 4
7 Melita 2 1 0 1 3
8 Naxxar Lions 2 1 0 1 3
9 Pietà Hotspurs 2 1 0 1 3
10 Mgarr United 2 1 0 1 3
11 Santa Lucía 2 0 2 0 2
12 Attard 2 0 1 1 1
13 St. Andrews 2 0 1 1 1
14 Zurrieq 2 0 0 2 0
15 Gudja United 2 0 0 2 0
16 Zebbug Rangers 2 0 0 2 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tarxien Rainbows 2 6 2 +4 6
2 Swieqi United 2 6 5 +1 4
3 Victoria Hotspurs 2 5 1 +4 6
4 Fgura United 2 5 1 +4 4
5 Naxxar Lions 2 5 4 +1 3
6 Pietà Hotspurs 2 5 5 0 3
7 Melita 2 4 2 +2 3
8 Attard 2 4 6 -2 1
9 Mgarr United 2 3 4 -1 3
10 Vittoriosa Stars 2 2 0 +2 4
11 Sirens 2 2 1 +1 4
12 Santa Lucía 2 1 1 0 2
13 Zurrieq 2 1 3 -2 0
14 St. Andrews 2 1 4 -3 1
15 Zebbug Rangers 2 1 7 -6 0
16 Gudja United 2 0 5 -5 0