Statistics / Football / Turkey. U19 league / Erzurumspor U19 vs Samsunspor U19

Erzurumspor U19 vs Samsunspor U19 Statistics & Analysis

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Erzurumspor U19
Sep 20, 2026 - 11:00
1 1.32
4 1.28
xG Accuracy: 43%
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Samsunspor U19
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Erzurumspor U19 Samsunspor U19 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8663738

Closing Odds 2.08
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Samsunspor U19 win · Erzurumspor U19 1–4 Samsunspor U19
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Erzurumspor U19 (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Erzurumspor U19 (1X2) by about 7.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Erzurumspor U19 (1X2) 36.1 28.7 +7.4
Draw (1X2) 29.7 27.8 +1.9
Samsunspor U19 (1X2) 34.2 43.5 -9.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 53.2 -5.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 46.8 +5.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.1% on Erzurumspor U19 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.7%. The difference — about 7.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Erzurumspor U19 (1X2) 3.15 3.15 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.26 3.26 0.0
Samsunspor U19 (1X2) 2.08 2.08 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.75 1.75 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.99 1.99 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: U19 league
  • Fixture: Erzurumspor U19 vs Samsunspor U19
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Erzurumspor U19 1.32 — Samsunspor U19 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.4% · Probability edge: +5.4 pts · Est. EV: +7.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
U19 league U19 league — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Beşiktaş U19 6 6 0 0 18
2 Trabzonspor U19 6 5 1 0 16
3 Galatasaray U18 5 4 0 1 12
3 Galatasaray U19 6 4 0 2 12
4 Samsunspor U19 6 3 1 2 10
5 Kocaelispor U19 6 3 1 2 10
6 Konyaspor U19 6 3 1 2 10
7 İstanbul Başakşehir U19 6 3 1 2 10
8 Gaziantep U19 6 3 1 2 10
9 Fenerbahce U19 6 3 0 3 9
10 Genclerbirligi U19 6 3 0 3 9
11 Goztepe U19 6 3 0 3 9
12 Eyupspor U19 6 2 1 3 7
13 Amedspor U19 6 2 1 3 7
14 Alanyaspor U19 6 1 3 2 6
15 Rizespor U19 6 1 2 3 5
16 Kasimpasa U19 6 1 0 5 3
17 Corum U19 6 1 0 5 3
18 Erzurumspor U19 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Galatasaray U19 6 21 9 +12 12
2 Galatasaray U18 5 20 6 +14 12
3 Trabzonspor U19 6 17 5 +12 16
4 Beşiktaş U19 6 16 5 +11 18
5 Fenerbahce U19 6 14 10 +4 9
6 Samsunspor U19 6 13 7 +6 10
7 Genclerbirligi U19 6 13 9 +4 9
8 Kocaelispor U19 6 11 11 0 10
9 Konyaspor U19 6 11 11 0 10
10 İstanbul Başakşehir U19 6 11 11 0 10
11 Eyupspor U19 6 10 12 -2 7
12 Goztepe U19 6 9 9 0 9
13 Gaziantep U19 6 9 12 -3 10
14 Erzurumspor U19 6 7 18 -11 1
15 Corum U19 6 6 20 -14 3
16 Alanyaspor U19 6 5 6 -1 6
17 Rizespor U19 6 5 11 -6 5
18 Kasimpasa U19 6 5 12 -7 3
19 Amedspor U19 6 3 8 -5 7