Galatasaray U18 vs Kocaelispor U19 Statistics & Analysis

Galatasaray U18

Sep 13, 2026 - 10:00

5 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 26%

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Kocaelispor U19

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Galatasaray U18 Galatasaray U18 ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7431202

Closing Odds 1.44

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Galatasaray U18 win · Galatasaray U18 5–0 Kocaelispor U19

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Kocaelispor U19 (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Kocaelispor U19 (1X2) by about 17.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Galatasaray U18 (1X2)	36.1	62.7	-26.6
Draw (1X2)	29.7	20.2	+9.5
Kocaelispor U19 (1X2)	34.2	17.1	+17.2
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	65.0	-16.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	35.0	+16.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Kocaelispor U19 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 17.1%. The difference — about 17.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Galatasaray U18 (1X2)	1.44	1.44
Draw (1X2)	4.47	4.47
Kocaelispor U19 (1X2)	5.29	5.29
Over 2.5 goals	1.42	1.42
Under 2.5 goals	2.64	2.64

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: U19 league
Fixture: Galatasaray U18 vs Kocaelispor U19
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 10:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Galatasaray U18 1.32 — Kocaelispor U19 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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U19 league — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Beşiktaş U19	6	6	0	0	18
2	Trabzonspor U19	6	5	1	0	16
3	Galatasaray U18	5	4	0	1	12
3	Galatasaray U19	6	4	0	2	12
4	Samsunspor U19	6	3	1	2	10
5	Kocaelispor U19	6	3	1	2	10
6	Konyaspor U19	6	3	1	2	10
7	İstanbul Başakşehir U19	6	3	1	2	10
8	Gaziantep U19	6	3	1	2	10
9	Fenerbahce U19	6	3	0	3	9
10	Genclerbirligi U19	6	3	0	3	9
11	Goztepe U19	6	3	0	3	9
12	Eyupspor U19	6	2	1	3	7
13	Amedspor U19	6	2	1	3	7
14	Alanyaspor U19	6	1	3	2	6
15	Rizespor U19	6	1	2	3	5
16	Kasimpasa U19	6	1	0	5	3
17	Corum U19	6	1	0	5	3
18	Erzurumspor U19	6	0	1	5	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Galatasaray U19	6	21	9	+12	12
2	Galatasaray U18	5	20	6	+14	12
3	Trabzonspor U19	6	17	5	+12	16
4	Beşiktaş U19	6	16	5	+11	18
5	Fenerbahce U19	6	14	10	+4	9
6	Samsunspor U19	6	13	7	+6	10
7	Genclerbirligi U19	6	13	9	+4	9
8	Kocaelispor U19	6	11	11	0	10
9	Konyaspor U19	6	11	11	0	10
10	İstanbul Başakşehir U19	6	11	11	0	10
11	Eyupspor U19	6	10	12	-2	7
12	Goztepe U19	6	9	9	0	9
13	Gaziantep U19	6	9	12	-3	10
14	Erzurumspor U19	6	7	18	-11	1
15	Corum U19	6	6	20	-14	3
16	Alanyaspor U19	6	5	6	-1	6
17	Rizespor U19	6	5	11	-6	5
18	Kasimpasa U19	6	5	12	-7	3
19	Amedspor U19	6	3	8	-5	7