Germany W vs Australia W Statistics & Analysis

Oct 09, 2026 - 18:30

4 1.28

2 1.32

xG Accuracy: 39%

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 02:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12705768

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Germany W win · Germany W 4–2 Australia W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Friendlies Women
Fixture: Germany W vs Australia W
Kickoff: 2026-10-09 18:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
xG (showing): Germany W 1.28 — Australia W 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 36.8% · Probability edge: +15.0 pts · Est. EV: +34.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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