Uberlandia vs ABC Statistics & Analysis

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Validation Report

Market intelligence

AI match briefing

Model Performance

Market briefing

Model vs. closing implied

Closing-window line move

AI Match Summary

Historical Recommendation

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Last Updated

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Serie D — Standings

Uberlandia

Aug 22, 2026 - 20:00

1 1.30

0 1.30

xG Accuracy: 64%

ABC

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Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Uberlandia Uberlandia ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 18, 2026 · 01:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4449301

Closing Odds 3.2

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Uberlandia win · Uberlandia 1–0 ABC

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.27 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 16.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Uberlandia (1X2)	35.2	37.0	-1.8
Draw (1X2)	29.6	34.7	-5.1
ABC (1X2)	35.2	28.3	+6.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	32.2	+16.0
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	67.8	-16.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 32.2%. The difference — about 16.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Uberlandia (1X2)	2.4	2.45	-0.8
Draw (1X2)	2.64	2.61	+0.4
ABC (1X2)	3.24	3.2	+0.4
Over 2.5 goals	2.76	2.86	-1.3
Under 2.5 goals	1.39	1.36	+1.3

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Serie D
Fixture: Uberlandia vs ABC
Kickoff: 2026-08-22 20:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
xG (showing): Uberlandia 1.3 — ABC 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 34.0% · Probability edge: +14.2 pts · Est. EV: +37.9%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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