12 de Junio VH vs Paraguari AC Statistics & Analysis

12 de Junio VH

Aug 24, 2026 - 21:30

3 1.32

2 1.28

xG Accuracy: 52%

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Paraguari AC

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 12 de Junio VH 12 de Junio VH ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 18, 2026 · 02:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4457403

Closing Odds 1.56

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result 12 de Junio VH win · 12 de Junio VH 3–2 Paraguari AC

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Paraguari AC (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Paraguari AC (1X2) by about 17.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
12 de Junio VH (1X2)	36.1	57.6	-21.6
Draw (1X2)	29.7	25.2	+4.5
Paraguari AC (1X2)	34.2	17.2	+17.1
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	44.5	+3.7
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	55.5	-3.7

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Paraguari AC (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 17.2%. The difference — about 17.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
12 de Junio VH (1X2)	1.56	1.56
Draw (1X2)	3.57	3.57
Paraguari AC (1X2)	5.24	5.24
Over 2.5 goals	2.08	2.08
Under 2.5 goals	1.67	1.67

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Division Intermedia
Fixture: 12 de Junio VH vs Paraguari AC
Kickoff: 2026-08-24 21:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): 12 de Junio VH 1.32 — Paraguari AC 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Division Intermedia — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Deportivo Santani	26	16	3	7	51
2	General Caballero	26	15	5	6	50
3	12 de Junio VH	26	14	7	5	49
4	Benjamín Aceval	26	12	6	8	42
5	SOL DE America	26	9	13	4	40
6	Sportivo Carapeguá	26	11	5	10	38
7	Independiente F.b.c.	26	9	10	7	37
8	Paraguari AC	25	10	5	10	35
9	Resistencia	26	8	8	10	32
10	Fernando De La Mora	25	8	7	10	31
11	Atlético Tembetary	25	8	6	11	30
12	Deportivo Capiata	26	6	10	10	28
13	3 de Noviembre	26	6	8	12	26
14	Guairena FC	25	6	7	12	25
15	Tacuary	26	4	12	10	24
16	Encarnación	26	6	4	16	22

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	General Caballero	26	52	33	+19	50
2	Deportivo Santani	26	45	25	+20	51
3	Benjamín Aceval	26	40	32	+8	42
4	Independiente F.b.c.	26	37	33	+4	37
5	12 de Junio VH	26	35	26	+9	49
6	Paraguari AC	25	34	33	+1	35
7	Atlético Tembetary	25	34	39	-5	30
8	3 de Noviembre	26	33	39	-6	26
9	SOL DE America	26	32	24	+8	40
10	Sportivo Carapeguá	26	31	38	-7	38
11	Deportivo Capiata	26	30	36	-6	28
12	Resistencia	26	28	32	-4	32
13	Fernando De La Mora	25	28	35	-7	31
14	Tacuary	26	28	40	-12	24
15	Encarnación	26	25	36	-11	22
16	Guairena FC	25	22	33	-11	25