Statistics / Football / Paraguay. Division Profesional - Clausura / Olimpia vs Cerro Porteno

Olimpia vs Cerro Porteno Statistics & Analysis

Olimpia Olimpia
Aug 23, 2026 - 19:00
2 1.07
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 71%
Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Cerro Porteno Olimpia ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4371423

Closing Odds 1.94
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Olimpia win · Olimpia 2–1 Cerro Porteno
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Cerro Porteno (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Cerro Porteno (1X2) by about 17.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Olimpia (1X2) 28.7 48.9 -20.2
Draw (1X2) 30.9 28.6 +2.4
Cerro Porteno (1X2) 40.3 22.5 +17.8
Over 2.5 goals 42.5 44.8 -2.3
Under 2.5 goals 57.5 55.2 +2.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 40.3% on Cerro Porteno (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.5%. The difference — about 17.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Olimpia (1X2) 1.94 1.94 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.32 3.32 0.0
Cerro Porteno (1X2) 4.22 4.22 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.13 2.13 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.73 1.73 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division Profesional - Clausura
  • Fixture: Olimpia vs Cerro Porteno
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.7% · Draw 30.9% · Away 40.3%
  • xG (showing): Olimpia 1.07 — Cerro Porteno 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.38)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Cerro Porteno
  • Model: 40.3% · Implied: 22.5% · Probability edge: +17.8 pts · Est. EV: +5.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 49.7% · No 50.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.0%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Division Profesional - Clausura Division Profesional - Clausura — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Libertad Asuncion 11 7 2 2 23
2 Nacional Asuncion 12 6 4 2 22
3 2 de Mayo 12 6 4 2 22
4 Olimpia 11 7 1 3 22
5 Club Guarani 12 5 5 2 20
6 Sportivo Ameliano 12 4 6 2 18
7 Sportivo Trinidense 11 5 2 4 17
8 Cerro Porteno 11 5 2 4 17
9 Sportivo Luqueno 12 4 1 7 13
10 Rubio NU 12 2 3 7 9
11 Deportivo Recoleta 11 2 1 8 7
12 Club Sp. San Lorenzo 11 0 1 10 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Olimpia 11 20 9 +11 22
2 Nacional Asuncion 12 19 7 +12 22
3 Libertad Asuncion 11 19 12 +7 23
4 Sportivo Trinidense 11 18 10 +8 17
5 Cerro Porteno 11 14 10 +4 17
6 2 de Mayo 12 14 13 +1 22
7 Sportivo Ameliano 12 14 13 +1 18
8 Club Guarani 12 13 9 +4 20
9 Rubio NU 12 13 23 -10 9
10 Deportivo Recoleta 11 13 24 -11 7
11 Sportivo Luqueno 12 12 21 -9 13
12 Club Sp. San Lorenzo 11 3 21 -18 1