Statistics / Football / Nigeria. NPFL / Ikorodu City vs Kwara United

Ikorodu City vs Kwara United Statistics & Analysis

Ikorodu City Ikorodu City
Oct 10, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.36
0 1.24
xG Accuracy: 60%
Kwara United Kwara United
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ikorodu City Ikorodu City ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13241375

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ikorodu City win · Ikorodu City 2–0 Kwara United
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: NPFL
  • Fixture: Ikorodu City vs Kwara United
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): Ikorodu City 1.36 — Kwara United 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
NPFL NPFL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Enugu Rangers 7 5 1 1 16
2 Rivers United 7 4 3 0 15
3 Doma United 7 4 1 2 13
4 Ikorodu City 8 3 3 2 12
5 Barau FC 7 3 3 1 12
6 Bendel Insurance 7 4 0 3 12
7 Katsina United 8 3 3 2 12
8 Kano Pillars 7 2 5 0 11
9 Plateau United 7 3 2 2 11
10 Kwara United 8 3 1 4 10
11 Sporting Lagos 7 2 3 2 9
12 Niger Tornadoes 8 2 3 3 9
13 Ranchers Bees 8 2 2 4 8
14 Shooting Stars 7 2 2 3 8
15 Nasarawa United 7 2 2 3 8
16 Abia Warriors 7 2 2 3 8
17 Enyimba 8 2 1 5 7
18 Warri Wolves 7 2 1 4 7
19 Inter Lagos 7 1 2 4 5
20 Kun Khalifat FC 7 1 2 4 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rivers United 7 13 2 +11 15
2 Bendel Insurance 7 13 11 +2 12
3 Enugu Rangers 7 12 7 +5 16
4 Kano Pillars 7 11 7 +4 11
5 Enyimba 8 11 14 -3 7
6 Ikorodu City 8 10 7 +3 12
7 Barau FC 7 10 7 +3 12
8 Doma United 7 10 8 +2 13
9 Katsina United 8 10 11 -1 12
10 Plateau United 7 9 8 +1 11
11 Kwara United 8 9 9 0 10
12 Ranchers Bees 8 9 10 -1 8
13 Sporting Lagos 7 8 8 0 9
14 Abia Warriors 7 8 11 -3 8
15 Shooting Stars 7 7 9 -2 8
16 Niger Tornadoes 8 6 7 -1 9
17 Nasarawa United 7 6 8 -2 8
18 Kun Khalifat FC 7 5 14 -9 5
19 Inter Lagos 7 4 10 -6 5
20 Warri Wolves 7 3 6 -3 7
NPFL Nigeria. NPFL Predictions