Ikorodu City vs Barau FC Statistics & Analysis

Ikorodu City

Sep 19, 2026 - 15:00

0 1.38

0 1.22

xG Accuracy: 49%

⚽

Barau FC

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Ikorodu City Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8699736

Closing Odds 1.53

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Ikorodu City 0–0 Barau FC

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Barau FC (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Barau FC (1X2) by about 17.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Ikorodu City (1X2)	39.0	58.3	-19.3
Draw (1X2)	29.5	27.4	+2.1
Barau FC (1X2)	31.5	14.3	+17.2
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	37.5	+10.7
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	62.5	-10.7

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.5% on Barau FC (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 14.3%. The difference — about 17.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Ikorodu City (1X2)	1.53	1.53
Draw (1X2)	3.25	3.25
Barau FC (1X2)	6.25	6.25
Over 2.5 goals	2.5	2.5
Under 2.5 goals	1.5	1.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: NPFL
Fixture: Ikorodu City vs Barau FC
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
xG (showing): Ikorodu City 1.38 — Barau FC 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

NPFL — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Enugu Rangers	6	4	1	1	13
2	Rivers United	6	3	3	0	12
3	Barau FC	6	3	3	0	12
4	Plateau United	6	3	2	1	11
5	Doma United	6	3	1	2	10
6	Kano Pillars	5	2	3	0	9
7	Ikorodu City	6	2	3	1	9
8	Bendel Insurance	6	3	0	3	9
9	Sporting Lagos	6	2	2	2	8
10	Abia Warriors	6	2	2	2	8
11	Katsina United	6	2	2	2	8
12	Kwara United	6	2	1	3	7
13	Ranchers Bees	6	2	1	3	7
14	Nasarawa United	6	2	1	3	7
15	Warri Wolves	6	2	1	3	7
16	Shooting Stars	5	2	0	3	6
17	Niger Tornadoes	6	1	2	3	5
18	Kun Khalifat FC	6	1	2	3	5
19	Enyimba	6	1	1	4	4
20	Inter Lagos	6	1	1	4	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Rivers United	6	11	2	+9	12
2	Kano Pillars	5	10	6	+4	9
3	Barau FC	6	9	3	+6	12
4	Enugu Rangers	6	9	6	+3	13
5	Plateau United	6	9	6	+3	11
6	Doma United	6	9	8	+1	10
7	Bendel Insurance	6	9	10	-1	9
8	Ikorodu City	6	8	5	+3	9
9	Ranchers Bees	6	8	8	0	7
10	Kwara United	6	7	6	+1	7
11	Sporting Lagos	6	7	7	0	8
12	Abia Warriors	6	7	8	-1	8
13	Shooting Stars	5	7	9	-2	6
14	Enyimba	6	7	10	-3	4
15	Nasarawa United	6	6	8	-2	7
16	Niger Tornadoes	6	5	7	-2	5
17	Katsina United	6	5	8	-3	8
18	Kun Khalifat FC	6	5	13	-8	5
19	Warri Wolves	6	3	5	-2	7
20	Inter Lagos	6	3	9	-6	4