Burreli vs Kastrioti Krujë Statistics & Analysis

Burreli

Sep 06, 2026 - 14:00

2 1.32

2 1.28

xG Accuracy: 68%

Kastrioti Krujë

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Burreli Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6362438

Closing Odds 1.65

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Burreli 2–2 Kastrioti Krujë

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Kastrioti Krujë (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Kastrioti Krujë (1X2) by about 15.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Burreli (1X2)	36.1	54.1	-18.0
Draw (1X2)	29.7	27.1	+2.6
Kastrioti Krujë (1X2)	34.2	18.8	+15.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	43.7	+4.5
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	56.3	-4.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Kastrioti Krujë (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.8%. The difference — about 15.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Burreli (1X2)	1.65	1.65
Draw (1X2)	3.3	3.3
Kastrioti Krujë (1X2)	4.75	4.75
Over 2.5 goals	2.15	2.15
Under 2.5 goals	1.67	1.67

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 1st Division
Fixture: Burreli vs Kastrioti Krujë
Kickoff: 2026-09-06 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Burreli 1.32 — Kastrioti Krujë 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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1st Division — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Pogradeci	4	2	2	0	8
2	Besa Kavajë	4	2	1	1	7
3	Korabi Peshkopi	4	2	1	1	7
4	Iliria Fushë-Krujë	4	1	3	0	6
5	Bylis	4	1	3	0	6
6	FK Kukesi	4	2	0	2	6
7	Kastrioti Krujë	4	1	2	1	5
8	Burreli	4	1	2	1	5
9	Sopoti Librazhd	4	1	2	1	5
10	Besëlidhja Lezhë	4	1	1	2	4
11	Flamurtari	4	0	3	1	3
12	Oriku	4	0	0	4	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Besa Kavajë	4	13	5	+8	7
2	FK Kukesi	4	6	6	0	6
3	Pogradeci	4	5	1	+4	8
4	Iliria Fushë-Krujë	4	5	3	+2	6
5	Kastrioti Krujë	4	5	5	0	5
6	Burreli	4	5	6	-1	5
7	Sopoti Librazhd	4	5	7	-2	5
8	Bylis	4	4	3	+1	6
9	Korabi Peshkopi	4	4	5	-1	7
10	Flamurtari	4	4	5	-1	3
11	Besëlidhja Lezhë	4	3	5	-2	4
12	Oriku	4	1	9	-8	0