Statistics / Football / Iraq. Iraqi League / Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Diyala

Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Diyala Statistics & Analysis

Al Quwa Al Jawiya Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Sep 19, 2026 - 15:45
1 1.51
1 1.09
xG Accuracy: 85%
Diyala Diyala
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Al Quwa Al Jawiya Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8701119

Closing Odds 1.62
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1–1 Diyala
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Diyala (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Diyala (1X2) by about 6.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Al Quwa Al Jawiya (1X2) 45.3 55.4 -10.2
Draw (1X2) 28.9 25.7 +3.3
Diyala (1X2) 25.8 18.9 +6.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 48.7 -0.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 51.3 +0.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 25.8% on Diyala (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.9%. The difference — about 6.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Al Quwa Al Jawiya (1X2) 1.62 1.62 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.5 3.5 0.0
Diyala (1X2) 4.75 4.75 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.95 1.95 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.85 1.85 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Iraqi League
  • Fixture: Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Diyala
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 15:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.3% · Draw 28.9% · Away 25.8%
  • xG (showing): Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1.51 — Diyala 1.09 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 53.3% · Implied: 46.9% · Probability edge: +6.4 pts · Est. EV: +3.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Iraqi League Iraqi League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al-Karma 8 6 2 0 20
2 Al Zawra'a 8 5 3 0 18
3 Erbil 8 5 2 1 17
4 Newroz 8 4 3 1 15
5 Al Shorta 8 4 3 1 15
6 Naft 8 4 3 1 15
7 Al-Jolan SC 8 2 4 2 10
8 Duhok 8 1 6 1 9
9 Diyala 8 2 3 3 9
10 Al Minaa Basra 8 2 3 3 9
11 Zakho 8 2 3 3 9
12 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 8 1 5 2 8
13 Ghaz Al Shamal 8 1 5 2 8
14 Mosul 8 2 2 4 8
15 Al Karkh 8 2 1 5 7
16 Al Kahrabaa 8 1 4 3 7
17 Al Talaba 8 1 4 3 7
18 Naft Maysan 8 1 4 3 7
19 Gharraf 8 1 2 5 5
20 Karbala 8 1 2 5 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al Zawra'a 8 15 3 +12 18
2 Al-Karma 8 14 5 +9 20
3 Newroz 8 13 4 +9 15
4 Diyala 8 13 14 -1 9
5 Erbil 8 12 3 +9 17
6 Duhok 8 11 11 0 9
7 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 8 11 12 -1 8
8 Al Karkh 8 10 14 -4 7
9 Al Shorta 8 9 4 +5 15
10 Naft 8 9 5 +4 15
11 Mosul 8 9 12 -3 8
12 Al Talaba 8 9 14 -5 7
13 Al-Jolan SC 8 8 9 -1 10
14 Al Minaa Basra 8 8 10 -2 9
15 Zakho 8 7 11 -4 9
16 Al Kahrabaa 8 6 10 -4 7
17 Naft Maysan 8 6 11 -5 7
18 Karbala 8 6 15 -9 5
19 Ghaz Al Shamal 8 4 5 -1 8
20 Gharraf 8 4 12 -8 5