Statistics / Football / Iraq. Iraqi League / Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Naft Maysan

Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Naft Maysan Statistics & Analysis

Al Quwa Al Jawiya Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Aug 29, 2026 - 15:45
1 1.50
1 1.10
xG Accuracy: 85%
Naft Maysan Naft Maysan
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Al Quwa Al Jawiya Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 04:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5153781

Closing Odds 1.44
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1–1 Naft Maysan
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Naft Maysan (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Naft Maysan (1X2) by about 11.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Al Quwa Al Jawiya (1X2) 44.8 62.5 -17.7
Draw (1X2) 29.0 23.1 +5.9
Naft Maysan (1X2) 26.2 14.4 +11.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 48.7 -0.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 51.3 +0.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 26.2% on Naft Maysan (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 14.4%. The difference — about 11.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Al Quwa Al Jawiya (1X2) 1.44 1.44 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.9 3.9 0.0
Naft Maysan (1X2) 6.25 6.25 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.95 1.95 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.85 1.85 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Iraqi League
  • Fixture: Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Naft Maysan
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-29 15:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.8% · Draw 29.0% · Away 26.2%
  • xG (showing): Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1.5 — Naft Maysan 1.1 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.4% · No 46.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.4% · No 46.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Iraqi League Iraqi League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al-Karma 8 6 2 0 20
2 Al Zawra'a 8 5 3 0 18
3 Erbil 8 5 2 1 17
4 Newroz 8 4 3 1 15
5 Al Shorta 8 4 3 1 15
6 Naft 8 4 3 1 15
7 Al-Jolan SC 8 2 4 2 10
8 Duhok 8 1 6 1 9
9 Diyala 8 2 3 3 9
10 Al Minaa Basra 8 2 3 3 9
11 Zakho 8 2 3 3 9
12 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 8 1 5 2 8
13 Ghaz Al Shamal 8 1 5 2 8
14 Mosul 8 2 2 4 8
15 Al Karkh 8 2 1 5 7
16 Al Kahrabaa 8 1 4 3 7
17 Al Talaba 8 1 4 3 7
18 Naft Maysan 8 1 4 3 7
19 Gharraf 8 1 2 5 5
20 Karbala 8 1 2 5 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al Zawra'a 8 15 3 +12 18
2 Al-Karma 8 14 5 +9 20
3 Newroz 8 13 4 +9 15
4 Diyala 8 13 14 -1 9
5 Erbil 8 12 3 +9 17
6 Duhok 8 11 11 0 9
7 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 8 11 12 -1 8
8 Al Karkh 8 10 14 -4 7
9 Al Shorta 8 9 4 +5 15
10 Naft 8 9 5 +4 15
11 Mosul 8 9 12 -3 8
12 Al Talaba 8 9 14 -5 7
13 Al-Jolan SC 8 8 9 -1 10
14 Al Minaa Basra 8 8 10 -2 9
15 Zakho 8 7 11 -4 9
16 Al Kahrabaa 8 6 10 -4 7
17 Naft Maysan 8 6 11 -5 7
18 Karbala 8 6 15 -9 5
19 Ghaz Al Shamal 8 4 5 -1 8
20 Gharraf 8 4 12 -8 5