Statistics / Football / South-Africa. 1st Division / Leicesterfield vs Midlands Wanderers

Leicesterfield vs Midlands Wanderers Statistics & Analysis

Leicesterfield Leicesterfield
Sep 19, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.29
0 1.31
xG Accuracy: 64%
Midlands Wanderers Midlands Wanderers
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Midlands Wanderers Leicesterfield ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8674873

Closing Odds 2.92
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Leicesterfield win · Leicesterfield 1–0 Midlands Wanderers
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Midlands Wanderers (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 9.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Leicesterfield (1X2) 34.7 39.0 -4.2
Draw (1X2) 29.7 30.1 -0.4
Midlands Wanderers (1X2) 35.6 31.0 +4.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 38.9 +9.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 61.1 -9.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 38.9%. The difference — about 9.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Leicesterfield (1X2) 2.32 2.32 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.01 3.01 0.0
Midlands Wanderers (1X2) 2.92 2.92 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.37 2.37 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.51 1.51 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1st Division
  • Fixture: Leicesterfield vs Midlands Wanderers
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Leicesterfield 1.29 — Midlands Wanderers 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 39.5% · Probability edge: +8.7 pts · Est. EV: +14.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1st Division 1st Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Magesi 5 4 1 0 13
2 Casric Stars 5 4 0 1 12
3 Leicesterfield 5 3 1 1 10
4 Highbury 5 3 1 1 10
5 Hope FC 5 3 0 2 9
6 Cape Town City 5 2 2 1 8
7 Upington City 5 2 2 1 8
8 Gomora United FC 5 2 2 1 8
9 Lerumo Lions 5 2 1 2 7
10 Hungry Lions 5 1 3 1 6
11 University of Pretoria 5 1 2 2 5
12 Midlands Wanderers 5 1 1 3 4
13 NWU FC 5 0 3 2 3
14 The Bees 5 1 0 4 3
15 Orbit College 5 0 2 3 2
16 Venda FC 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Upington City 5 9 8 +1 8
2 Leicesterfield 5 8 6 +2 10
3 Magesi 5 7 2 +5 13
4 Casric Stars 5 7 3 +4 12
5 Cape Town City 5 6 4 +2 8
6 Hungry Lions 5 6 5 +1 6
7 Gomora United FC 5 6 6 0 8
8 Lerumo Lions 5 5 4 +1 7
9 University of Pretoria 5 5 6 -1 5
10 Highbury 5 4 2 +2 10
11 Hope FC 5 3 3 0 9
12 Midlands Wanderers 5 3 4 -1 4
13 Venda FC 5 3 9 -6 1
14 NWU FC 5 2 5 -3 3
15 The Bees 5 2 6 -4 3
16 Orbit College 5 1 4 -3 2