Statistics / Football / South-Africa. 1st Division / Cape Town City vs Hungry Lions

Cape Town City vs Hungry Lions Statistics & Analysis

Cape Town City Cape Town City
Sep 06, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.30
1 1.30
xG Accuracy: 76%
Hungry Lions Hungry Lions
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Cape Town City Cape Town City ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 02:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6140622

Closing Odds 4.04
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Cape Town City win · Cape Town City 2–1 Hungry Lions
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Hungry Lions (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Hungry Lions (1X2) by about 12.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Cape Town City (1X2) 35.2 46.9 -11.8
Draw (1X2) 29.6 30.4 -0.8
Hungry Lions (1X2) 35.2 22.7 +12.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 36.2 +12.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 63.8 -12.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.2% on Hungry Lions (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.7%. The difference — about 12.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Cape Town City (1X2) 1.93 1.95 +0.1
Draw (1X2) 2.97 3.01 -0.0
Hungry Lions (1X2) 3.97 4.04 -0.1
Over 2.5 goals 2.54 2.57 -0.1
Under 2.5 goals 1.45 1.46 +0.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 1st Division
  • Fixture: Cape Town City vs Hungry Lions
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Cape Town City 1.3 — Hungry Lions 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 42.7% · Probability edge: +11.8 pts · Est. EV: +17.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1st Division 1st Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Magesi 5 4 1 0 13
2 Casric Stars 5 4 0 1 12
3 Leicesterfield 5 3 1 1 10
4 Highbury 5 3 1 1 10
5 Hope FC 5 3 0 2 9
6 Cape Town City 5 2 2 1 8
7 Upington City 5 2 2 1 8
8 Gomora United FC 5 2 2 1 8
9 Lerumo Lions 5 2 1 2 7
10 Hungry Lions 5 1 3 1 6
11 University of Pretoria 5 1 2 2 5
12 Midlands Wanderers 5 1 1 3 4
13 NWU FC 5 0 3 2 3
14 The Bees 5 1 0 4 3
15 Orbit College 5 0 2 3 2
16 Venda FC 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Upington City 5 9 8 +1 8
2 Leicesterfield 5 8 6 +2 10
3 Magesi 5 7 2 +5 13
4 Casric Stars 5 7 3 +4 12
5 Cape Town City 5 6 4 +2 8
6 Hungry Lions 5 6 5 +1 6
7 Gomora United FC 5 6 6 0 8
8 Lerumo Lions 5 5 4 +1 7
9 University of Pretoria 5 5 6 -1 5
10 Highbury 5 4 2 +2 10
11 Hope FC 5 3 3 0 9
12 Midlands Wanderers 5 3 4 -1 4
13 Venda FC 5 3 9 -6 1
14 NWU FC 5 2 5 -3 3
15 The Bees 5 2 6 -4 3
16 Orbit College 5 1 4 -3 2