Statistics / Football / Czech-Republic. 1. Liga Women / Viktoria Plzeň W vs Slovácko W

Viktoria Plzeň W vs Slovácko W Statistics & Analysis

Viktoria Plzeň W Viktoria Plzeň W
Sep 27, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.11
2 1.49
xG Accuracy: 84%
Slovácko W Slovácko W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Slovácko W Slovácko W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10096079

Closing Odds 2.0
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Slovácko W win · Viktoria Plzeň W 1–2 Slovácko W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE10 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Slovácko W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 18.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Viktoria Plzeň W (1X2) 26.7 44.9 -18.2
Draw (1X2) 29.0 20.8 +8.3
Slovácko W (1X2) 44.3 34.3 +10.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 66.3 -18.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 33.7 +18.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 33.7%. The difference — about 18.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE10) Implied Δ (pp)
Viktoria Plzeň W (1X2) 2.0 2.0 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.33 4.33 0.0
Slovácko W (1X2) 2.62 2.62 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.4 1.4 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.75 2.75 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 1. Liga Women
  • Fixture: Viktoria Plzeň W vs Slovácko W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 26.7% · Draw 29.0% · Away 44.3%
  • xG (showing): Viktoria Plzeň W 1.11 — Slovácko W 1.49 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 33.4% · Probability edge: +18.4 pts · Est. EV: +42.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1. Liga Women 1. Liga Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Slavia Praha W 7 7 0 0 21
2 Sparta Praha W 7 5 0 2 15
3 Slovan Liberec W 6 4 0 2 12
4 Prague Raptors W 6 4 0 2 12
5 Viktoria Plzeň W 6 3 0 3 9
6 Baník Ostrava W 7 1 1 5 4
7 Slovácko W 6 1 1 4 4
8 Horní Heršpice W 7 0 0 7 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Slavia Praha W 7 40 1 +39 21
2 Sparta Praha W 7 23 6 +17 15
3 Slovan Liberec W 6 15 9 +6 12
4 Baník Ostrava W 7 9 21 -12 4
5 Prague Raptors W 6 7 6 +1 12
6 Viktoria Plzeň W 6 7 16 -9 9
7 Slovácko W 6 2 19 -17 4
8 Horní Heršpice W 7 0 25 -25 0
1. Liga Women Czech-Republic. 1. Liga Women Predictions