Statistics / Football / Czech-Republic. 1. Liga Women / Slovácko W vs Sparta Praha W

Slovácko W vs Sparta Praha W Statistics & Analysis

Slovácko W Slovácko W
Aug 29, 2026 - 10:45
0 1.10
3 1.50
xG Accuracy: 49%
Sparta Praha W Sparta Praha W
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sparta Praha W Sparta Praha W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5124424

Closing Odds 1.14
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Sparta Praha W win · Slovácko W 0–3 Sparta Praha W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Slovácko W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 22.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Slovácko W (1X2) 26.2 7.5 +18.7
Draw (1X2) 29.0 12.9 +16.0
Sparta Praha W (1X2) 44.8 79.5 -34.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 71.0 -22.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 29.0 +22.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 29.0%. The difference — about 22.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Slovácko W (1X2) 12.0 12.0 0.0
Draw (1X2) 7.0 7.0 0.0
Sparta Praha W (1X2) 1.14 1.14 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.33 1.33 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 3.25 3.25 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Sparta Praha W; market prices Sparta Praha W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Slovácko W 1.10 xG vs Sparta Praha W 1.50 → Sparta Praha W 44.8%
  • Market: Sparta Praha W ~79.5% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.4% · No 46.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Slovácko W & Sparta Praha W!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
1. Liga Women 1. Liga Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Slavia Praha W 7 7 0 0 21
2 Sparta Praha W 7 5 0 2 15
3 Slovan Liberec W 6 4 0 2 12
4 Prague Raptors W 6 4 0 2 12
5 Viktoria Plzeň W 6 3 0 3 9
6 Baník Ostrava W 7 1 1 5 4
7 Slovácko W 6 1 1 4 4
8 Horní Heršpice W 7 0 0 7 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Slavia Praha W 7 40 1 +39 21
2 Sparta Praha W 7 23 6 +17 15
3 Slovan Liberec W 6 15 9 +6 12
4 Baník Ostrava W 7 9 21 -12 4
5 Prague Raptors W 6 7 6 +1 12
6 Viktoria Plzeň W 6 7 16 -9 9
7 Slovácko W 6 2 19 -17 4
8 Horní Heršpice W 7 0 25 -25 0
1. Liga Women Czech-Republic. 1. Liga Women Predictions