Statistics / Football / Angola. Girabola / Petro de Luanda vs Recreativo da Caála

Petro de Luanda vs Recreativo da Caála Statistics & Analysis

Petro de Luanda Petro de Luanda
Oct 09, 2026 - 14:30
0 1.51
0 1.09
xG Accuracy: 49%
Recreativo da Caála Recreativo da Caála
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Petro de Luanda Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13199624

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Petro de Luanda 0–0 Recreativo da Caála
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Girabola
  • Fixture: Petro de Luanda vs Recreativo da Caála
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-09 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.3% · Draw 28.9% · Away 25.8%
  • xG (showing): Petro de Luanda 1.51 — Recreativo da Caála 1.09 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Girabola Girabola — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Wiliete 6 5 1 0 16
2 Petro de Luanda 6 4 2 0 14
3 1º de Agosto 6 4 2 0 14
4 Onze Bravos 6 4 1 1 13
5 Interclube 6 3 1 2 10
6 Desportivo Huíla 6 3 1 2 10
7 Recreativo do Libolo 6 3 0 3 9
8 1º de Maio 6 2 2 2 8
9 Sagrada Esperança 5 2 1 2 7
10 CD Lunda-Sul 6 1 3 2 6
11 Kabuscorp 7 1 3 3 6
12 Recreativo da Caála 6 1 2 3 5
13 São Salvador 6 1 2 3 5
14 FC Luanda 6 1 1 4 4
15 Sporting de Cabinda 6 0 3 3 3
16 Académica do Lobito 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Wiliete 6 13 2 +11 16
2 1º de Agosto 6 10 6 +4 14
3 Onze Bravos 6 9 4 +5 13
4 1º de Maio 6 8 7 +1 8
5 Petro de Luanda 6 7 0 +7 14
6 Interclube 6 7 5 +2 10
7 Recreativo do Libolo 6 7 11 -4 9
8 Sagrada Esperança 5 6 7 -1 7
9 FC Luanda 6 6 10 -4 4
10 Desportivo Huíla 6 5 4 +1 10
11 Recreativo da Caála 6 5 7 -2 5
12 CD Lunda-Sul 6 4 5 -1 6
13 Kabuscorp 7 4 6 -2 6
14 Sporting de Cabinda 6 3 8 -5 3
15 São Salvador 6 2 5 -3 5
16 Académica do Lobito 6 1 10 -9 1
Girabola Angola. Girabola Predictions