Zamora FC B vs Atletico el Vigia FC Statistics & Analysis

Zamora FC B

Aug 15, 2026 - 19:30

0 1.36

2 1.24

xG Accuracy: 56%

Atletico el Vigia FC

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Zamora FC B Atletico el Vigia FC ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4032940

Closing Odds 1.46

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Atletico el Vigia FC win · Zamora FC B 0–2 Atletico el Vigia FC

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 5.79 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Atletico el Vigia FC (1X2) by about 14.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Zamora FC B (1X2)	38.0	61.5	-23.5
Draw (1X2)	29.6	21.0	+8.6
Atletico el Vigia FC (1X2)	32.4	17.5	+14.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	54.2	-6.0
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	45.8	+6.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.4% on Atletico el Vigia FC (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 17.5%. The difference — about 14.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365 → Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Zamora FC B (1X2)	1.44	1.46	-0.7
Draw (1X2)	4.5	4.28	+1.1
Atletico el Vigia FC (1X2)	5.0	5.14	-0.4
Over 2.5 goals	1.57	1.71	-5.8
Under 2.5 goals	2.35	2.02	+5.8

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Segunda División
Fixture: Zamora FC B vs Atletico el Vigia FC
Kickoff: 2026-08-15 19:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
xG (showing): Zamora FC B 1.36 — Atletico el Vigia FC 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Deportivo Lara	27	18	6	3	60
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	27	14	8	5	50
3	Urena SC	28	12	9	7	45
4	Yaracuyanos FC	27	11	7	9	40
5	Zamora FC B	27	11	7	9	40
6	Atletico el Vigia FC	28	9	7	12	34
7	Puerto Cabello II	28	8	7	13	31
8	Club Atletico Barinas	28	9	4	15	31
9	Real Frontera	28	3	3	22	12

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Club Atletico Barinas	28	49	59	-10	31
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	27	48	27	+21	50
3	Deportivo Lara	27	46	20	+26	60
4	Zamora FC B	27	42	36	+6	40
5	Urena SC	28	41	34	+7	45
6	Puerto Cabello II	28	36	40	-4	31
7	Yaracuyanos FC	27	34	27	+7	40
8	Atletico el Vigia FC	28	32	45	-13	34
9	Real Frontera	28	22	62	-40	12