Real Frontera vs Deportivo Lara Statistics & Analysis

Real Frontera

Aug 15, 2026 - 19:30

0 1.32

2 1.28

xG Accuracy: 57%

Deportivo Lara

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Real Frontera Deportivo Lara ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4032925

Closing Odds 1.57

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Deportivo Lara win · Real Frontera 0–2 Deportivo Lara

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 4.24 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Real Frontera (1X2) by about 17.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Real Frontera (1X2)	36.1	18.9	+17.2
Draw (1X2)	29.7	23.9	+5.7
Deportivo Lara (1X2)	34.2	57.1	-22.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	48.4	-0.2
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	51.6	+0.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.1% on Real Frontera (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.9%. The difference — about 17.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365 → Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Real Frontera (1X2)	5.5	4.74	+2.6
Draw (1X2)	3.8	3.75	+0.2
Deportivo Lara (1X2)	1.5	1.57	-2.8
Over 2.5 goals	1.8	1.93	-4.2
Under 2.5 goals	2.0	1.81	+4.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Segunda División
Fixture: Real Frontera vs Deportivo Lara
Kickoff: 2026-08-15 19:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Real Frontera 1.32 — Deportivo Lara 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.5% · Implied: 48.8% · Probability edge: +5.7 pts · Est. EV: +4.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Deportivo Lara	27	18	6	3	60
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	27	14	8	5	50
3	Urena SC	28	12	9	7	45
4	Yaracuyanos FC	27	11	7	9	40
5	Zamora FC B	27	11	7	9	40
6	Atletico el Vigia FC	28	9	7	12	34
7	Puerto Cabello II	28	8	7	13	31
8	Club Atletico Barinas	28	9	4	15	31
9	Real Frontera	28	3	3	22	12

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Club Atletico Barinas	28	49	59	-10	31
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	27	48	27	+21	50
3	Deportivo Lara	27	46	20	+26	60
4	Zamora FC B	27	42	36	+6	40
5	Urena SC	28	41	34	+7	45
6	Puerto Cabello II	28	36	40	-4	31
7	Yaracuyanos FC	27	34	27	+7	40
8	Atletico el Vigia FC	28	32	45	-13	34
9	Real Frontera	28	22	62	-40	12