Statistics / Football / Brazil. Pernambucano - U20 / Sport Recife U20 vs Academica Vitoria U20

Sport Recife U20 vs Academica Vitoria U20 Statistics & Analysis

Sport Recife U20 Sport Recife U20
Sep 30, 2026 - 18:00
3 1.49
0 1.11
xG Accuracy: 49%
⚽
Academica Vitoria U20
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sport Recife U20 Sport Recife U20 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 24, 2026 · 01:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10588490

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sport Recife U20 win · Sport Recife U20 3–0 Academica Vitoria U20
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Pernambucano - U20
  • Fixture: Sport Recife U20 vs Academica Vitoria U20
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-30 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.3% · Draw 29.0% · Away 26.7%
  • xG (showing): Sport Recife U20 1.49 — Academica Vitoria U20 1.11 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Pernambucano - U20 Pernambucano - U20 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Santa Cruz U20 8 6 2 0 20
1 Sport Recife U20 7 6 0 1 18
2 Retrô U20 8 5 2 1 17
2 Nautico U20 7 6 0 1 18
3 Ipojuca U20 8 4 3 1 15
3 Academica Vitoria U20 7 5 0 2 15
4 CA Porto U20 8 4 2 2 14
4 America PE U20 7 3 1 3 10
5 Central SC U20 8 3 3 2 12
5 Petrolina U20 7 3 1 3 10
6 1º de Maio U20 8 2 2 4 8
6 Serrano PE U20 7 1 3 3 6
7 Ibis Sport Club U20 8 2 1 5 7
7 Jaguar U20 7 1 1 5 4
8 Atletico PE U20 8 0 3 5 3
8 Guarany U20 7 0 0 7 0
9 Atletico Torres U20 8 0 2 6 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Santa Cruz U20 8 31 2 +29 20
2 Sport Recife U20 7 22 2 +20 18
3 Retrô U20 8 20 4 +16 17
4 America PE U20 7 18 8 +10 10
5 Nautico U20 7 17 5 +12 18
6 CA Porto U20 8 15 3 +12 14
7 Ipojuca U20 8 14 9 +5 15
8 Central SC U20 8 14 9 +5 12
9 Academica Vitoria U20 7 12 9 +3 15
10 Ibis Sport Club U20 8 10 20 -10 7
11 Jaguar U20 7 8 15 -7 4
12 1º de Maio U20 8 8 19 -11 8
13 Petrolina U20 7 6 8 -2 10
14 Serrano PE U20 7 6 9 -3 6
15 Atletico PE U20 8 6 30 -24 3
16 Guarany U20 7 3 36 -33 0
17 Atletico Torres U20 8 2 24 -22 2