Brentford U21 vs Derby County U21 Statistics & Analysis

Brentford U21

Oct 10, 2026 - 12:00

4 1.43

2 1.17

xG Accuracy: 39%

Derby County U21

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Brentford U21 Brentford U21 ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13200550

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Brentford U21 win · Brentford U21 4–2 Derby County U21

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Premier League Cup
Fixture: Brentford U21 vs Derby County U21
Kickoff: 2026-10-10 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
xG (showing): Brentford U21 1.43 — Derby County U21 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 36.4% · Probability edge: +15.4 pts · Est. EV: +39.9%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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