Peterborough United U21 vs Nottingham Forest U21 Statistics & Analysis

Peterborough United U21

Oct 09, 2026 - 18:00

1 1.24

5 1.36

xG Accuracy: 34%

Nottingham Forest U21

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Nottingham Forest U21 Nottingham Forest U21 ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 02:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12703830

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Nottingham Forest U21 win · Peterborough United U21 1–5 Nottingham Forest U21

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Premier League Cup
Fixture: Peterborough United U21 vs Nottingham Forest U21
Kickoff: 2026-10-09 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
xG (showing): Peterborough United U21 1.24 — Nottingham Forest U21 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 33.2% · Probability edge: +18.6 pts · Est. EV: +55.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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